Tuna processing and exporting enterprises worry about raw material shortage. Photo: T.H

Good signals from the market

According to Le Hang, Communications Director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers, in August 2024, seafood exports continued to recover with a growth rate of 20 percent, reaching nearly 953 million USD. Accumulated in the first 8 months of 2024, seafood exports reached nearly US$6.3 billion, up nearly 9 percent compared to the same period last year.

Except for squid and octopus, whose export turnover decreased by 15 percent in August, the export of all other key products had double- and triple-digit growth. Of which, shrimp exports increased by 30 percent, pangasius increased by 18 percent, tuna increased by 13 percent and other marine fish increased by 12 percent.

Shrimp exports by the end of August reached nearly US$2.4 billion, up 9 percent compared to the same period last year, of which whiteleg shrimp reached about US$1.75 billion, up 8 percent, black tiger shrimp exports were still 7 percent lower than the same period, reaching nearly US$290 million. Lobster alone maintained good growth momentum in August, so the export turnover in the first 8 months of the year was 140 percent higher compared to the same period in 2023. In addition to the challenges of anti-subsidy and anti-dumping taxes, shrimp exports are showing a positive trend, with stable growth in recent months.

Furthermore, the forecast of a decrease in global shrimp production in 2024 will also have an impact on shrimp prices. Production from China, Ecuador and India is expected to decrease this year, causing global production to decrease by about 260,000 tons (equivalent to a decrease of 5 percent) to 4.89 million tons.

Shrimp consumption has begun to increase in Europe, the US market has also recovered slightly, although the price of imported shrimp into China is still low, but these are also positive signs for the shrimp market.

Pangasius exports in the first 8 months of the year reached nearly US$1.3 billion, up 9 percent compared to the same period last year. While exports to China remain stagnant, the recovery of the US market is a lever for pangasius exports to grow. Exports to the US increased by 23 percent compared to the same period last year, while exports to China still decreased by 3 percent.

The US continues to have demand for white-meat fish species under the bidding programs of the Ministry of Agriculture of this country.

Pangasius exports to the EU market are very promising. According to Vietnam Customs, in the first half of August 2024, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the EU reached nearly US$8 million, up 57 percent compared to the same period.

On August 29, 2024, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced that they will buy more seafood, this time Pacific cod, grouper fillets, and catfish products. The department also announced that they paid US$6.5 million for 1.5 million pounds of catfish. This will also be an opportunity for Vietnamese enterprises to export pangasius.

Fear of raw material shortage

Tuna exports as of the end of August reached US$652 million, up 21 percent compared to the same period in 2023. The general market trend is that there is still demand for tuna products from Vietnam. However, in the coming months, tuna exports will find it difficult to maintain the good growth momentum as from the beginning of the year until now due to lack of raw materials.

Since Decree 37/2024/ND-CP took effect, with the minimum size regulation for tuna still being 0.5m, businesses have almost been unable to buy tuna according to that size regulation, so there is not enough domestic raw material to produce canned tuna, as well as other products for export.

Squid and octopus exports are most clearly affected by the IUU yellow card, the issue of certifying and certifying exploitation for this product is facing many difficulties, causing businesses to not have raw materials to ensure sufficient export documents. Therefore, by the end of August, squid and octopus exports still decreased by 2 percent compared to the same period, reaching only US$402 million.

In general, seafood exports to all markets are showing a more positive trend in terms of demand as well as a gradual recovery in prices.

However, there are still some major challenges that limit growth in the coming months such as the IUU yellow card, anti-subsidy tax, anti-dumping tax...

Based on the above reality, VASEP forecasts that seafood exports by the end of 2024 will fluctuate at US$9.4-9.5 billion, an increase of nearly 6 percent compared to 2023.