Import and export activities through Bac Luan II border gate (Mong Cai city, Quang Ninh). Photo: T.Binh.

Second half of November down USD 805 million

The latest preliminary statistics from the General Department of Customs show that Vietnam's total import-export turnover in the second period of November 2024 (November 16-30) reached USD 32.63 billion, down 2.4% (equivalent to a decrease of USD 805 million) compared to the results in the first period of November 2024.

Of which, export in the second period of November reached USD 16.9 billion, up 1% (equivalent to an increase of USD 165 million) compared to the previous period.

Export turnover in the second period of November increased compared to the first period of November 2024 in some key commodity groups such as: textiles and garments increased by USD 145 million (equivalent to an increase of 10%); iron and steel of all kinds increased by 141 million USD (an increase of 61.6%); coffee increased by USD 105 million (an increase of 86.3%); rice increased by USD 70.6 million (an increase of 37.8%)...

However, there are also some large commodity groups with reduced turnover such as: phones of all kinds and components decreased by USD 577 million (down 26.5%); crude oil decreased by USD 53 million (down 72.1%); coal of all kinds decreased by USD 11.4 million (down 99.4%)...

In contrast, Vietnam's total import turnover in the second period of November 2024 reached USD 15.73 billion, down 5.8% (equivalent to a decrease of USD 970 million) compared to the previous period.

Imports of goods in the second period of November decreased compared to the previous period, mainly in some groups of goods such as: computers, electronic products and components decreased by USD 214 million (equivalent to a decrease of 4.6%); crude oil decreased by USD 183 million (equivalent to a decrease of 55%); machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts decreased by USD 103 million (equivalent to a decrease of 4.6%); coal of all kinds decreased by USD 100 million (equivalent to a decrease of 39.4%)...

Potential to reach USD 780 billion

The results achieved in the second half of November 2024 brought the country's total import-export turnover in 11 months to USD 715.56 billion, an increase of 15.4%, equivalent to an increase of USD 95.32 billion over the same period last year.

Of which, Vietnam's exports reached USD 369.94 billion, up 14.4% (equivalent to an increase of USD 46.7 billion) over the same period last year.

The country's total import turnover reached USD 345.62 billion, up 16.4% (equivalent to an increase of USD 48.62 billion) over the same period last year.

In the second period of November 2024, the trade balance of goods had a surplus of USD 1.17 billion. Thus, in 11 months, the trade balance of goods had a surplus of 24.31 billion USD, down 7.3% compared to the surplus of USD 26.24 billion in the same period last year.

Notably, in the last two consecutive statistical periods, the country's import and export turnover has had a common trend of decreasing each period compared to the previous period.

Previously, in the first period of November 2024 (November 1-15), the country's import-export turnover reached USD 33.44 billion, down 9.7% (equivalent to a decrease of USD 3.58 billion) compared to the results achieved in the second half of October 2024.

Recently, some experts expect the import-export turnover in 2024 to reach a new peak of USD 800 billion.

However, with the scale achieved in the past 11 months and the downward trend in November, achieving the turnover of 800 billion is almost impossible.

Because, to reach USD 800 billion, in December the turnover must reach nearly USD 85 billion, this is a number that has never been achieved before and also far exceeds the average level of the past 11 months of 2024.

Specifically, in the first 11 months of the year, export turnover only reached an average of USD 65 billion/month. Therefore, if there is no sudden growth in December, import-export turnover will hardly explode to USD 85 billion.

With the results achieved in the past 11 months and recent trends, it is feasible that import-export turnover in 2024 will reach around USD 780 billion.

Although it has not reached USD 800 billion, the figure of USD 780 billion is also a new record for our country's foreign trade activities, about USD 50 billion higher than the old record (the previous record was set in 2022 with more than USD 730 billion).