Despite forecasts of continued global market volatility, the Vietnamese cashew industry has set a target to export approximately 800,000 tons of cashew kernels in 2026, aiming for a turnover of $5 billion—matching the record high achieved in 2025.

The target was announced during a conference held by the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) in Ho Chi Minh City on March 13 to review the 2025 performance and start purchasing plan for 2026.

Chairman of Vinacas, Mr. Pham Van Cong, noted that 2025 marked a significant milestone as the industry surpassed the $5-billion export mark for the first time. However, the outlook for 2026 is expected to be more challenging.

According to Mr. Cong, geopolitical conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are disrupting several shipping routes and consumer markets, thereby impacting global trade, including the cashew sector. Notably, the Middle East currently accounts for approximately 10-12% of global cashew kernel demand. If instability persists, import demand in this region could decline, directly affecting the export activities of Vietnamese enterprises.

Another risk highlighted by Vinacas involves disputes related to international contracts and payments. Mr. Cong stated that Vinacas’s International Trade Dispute Resolution Council has recently had to handle numerous cases between cashew buyers and sellers on the international market. These disputes are often complex because, although contracts are signed, many arising issues fall outside the simple scope of standard commercial law.

In light of these realities, Vinacas recommends that businesses exercise greater caution when signing export contracts. The association advises prioritizing transactions under CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) or CNF (Cost and Freight) terms to mitigate payment-related risks.

"In 2026, payment issues will become much more difficult. If businesses utilize other forms of payment, the risk of financial loss could be very high," Mr. Cong warned.

In the face of intensifying competition, Vinacas emphasized that the Vietnamese cashew industry must continue to innovate its development strategies. A notable trend is that several African nations are increasing their investments in domestic cashew processing.

A major concern raised at the conference was the recent surge in raw cashew nut prices, which has caused anxiety for processing firms. In fact, leading up to the recent Lunar New Year, raw cashew prices on the market spiked to approximately $2,000 per ton.

Mr. Phung Van Sam, CEO of Hanfimex Group Vietnam JSC, attributed this sharp price increase to "panic buying" among businesses. "Enterprises fear a shortage of raw materials for production and fear having to lay off workers, so everyone wants to buy in advance. When many people rush to buy at once, prices are pushed upward," he said.