The overall export turnover of agricultural, forestry, and aquatic goods in the first 11 months of 2023 totaled 47.84 billion USD. The export value to the Chinese market accounted for the highest share, accounting for 23.2%, marking an 18% rise.

Leading the markets

China, being the world's most populated market, is regarded as the world's greatest consumer of agricultural products. "If the quality is steady, Vietnam simply needs to worry about delivering enough, not whether they would buy," a business leader said.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnamese agricultural exports to China have nearly quadrupled over the previous decade, rising from 3.8 billion USD in 2013 to 6.8 billion USD last year.

The success of fruits and vegetables in this sector has been one of the year's early highlights. Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary-General of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (Vinafruit), stated that fruit and vegetable enterprises are looking forward to Mr. Xi Jinping's visit.

In recent years, the two nations' good collaboration has led to the phenomenal expansion of Vietnam's agricultural exports. For example, durian exports reached a record high when China approved mainstream exports in July 2022, up from roughly $300 million USD the previous year. This year's export value is expected to be 2.3 billion USD. This has also contributed to Vietnam's fruit and vegetable exports surpassing $5 billion USD in just 11 months.

Mr. Nguyen believes that bilateral Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and both countries' participation in the ASEAN-China Agreement, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and bilateral agreements have contributed significantly to the rapid growth in fruit and vegetable exports.

Ms. Ngo Tuong Vy, CEO of Chanh Thu Ngoc Fruit Import-Export Group, stated that there is still a lot of opportunity for selling fruits and vegetables to China. Currently, China imports 90% of Vietnam's high-quality durians. However, when the whole import volume of the 1.4 billion people market is considered, Vietnam's durian accounts for only 5%, with the remainder coming from Thailand and Malaysia.

"Many Chinese people have yet to experience Vietnamese durians, and many Chinese provinces lack durians." Vietnam has a fantastic potential here. In reality, Chanh Thu's partners have made several requests, but the firm can now only deliver roughly one-tenth of them," Ms. Vy explained.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, China is presently Vietnam's most important commercial partner, with two-way trade expected to reach 235 billion USD in 2022, more than four times that of 2014. Vietnamese exports to China are roughly double those of the United States and five times that of Japan. In contrast, Vietnam is China's major ASEAN commercial partner.

Swift nests, sweet potatoes, dragon fruit, lychee, longan, mango, jackfruit, watermelon, bananas, mangosteen, lychee, passion fruit, and durian are among the 13 primary agricultural export goods from Vietnam to China. Vietnam sold its first batch of conventional swift nests to China in November.

In addition to the agricultural items mentioned above, seafood is a bright light. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), China has eclipsed the United States as Vietnam's top client by the end of November. China is projected to sustain a high import trend until February 2024 to meet the end-of-year peak spending season and the Lunar New Year.

It is worth noting that due to competitive costs, China's vast diversity gives several prospects for items such as catfish. Furthermore, the country has a high-end client base, making it appropriate for deep-processed shrimp goods, which are one of Vietnam's strengths. Many seafood companies see China as a key area for expansion.

No longer "easygoing"

However, several Vietnamese agricultural goods are struggling to overcome technological restrictions in the Chinese market. This market is no longer seen as "lazy." According to Nguyen Hong Dien, Minister of Industry and Trade, "China is no longer as laidback as it once was; not all items are acceptable in the Chinese market." China's economy, on the other hand, despite its size, is predominantly export-oriented since China has been and will continue to be the world's factory. Chinese exports are quite comparable to Vietnamese exports, presenting both opportunities and problems for Vietnamese goods."

This market also has various impediments, such as inadequate border infrastructure, particularly in terms of commerce. Agricultural and aquatic goods are mostly traded on a small basis, with inconsistencies in quantity, quality, and price.

Another issue is that the main and auxiliary border gates continue to operate in the conventional manner. Due to differences in rules between the two nations, upgrading and opening new gate pairs has not kept up with business demands.

Furthermore, China's tightening of small-scale commerce and transition to mainstream trade have narrowed the "door" for agricultural exports, demanding compliance with quality, technical environmental norms, and packaging.

Furthermore, Vietnam competes strongly with local products in China and neighboring nations. According to analysts, exotic fruits such as dragon fruit, which was formerly peculiar to Vietnam, are now grown in greater quantities and marketed at lower rates in China. Similarly, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand are competing for Vietnam's durians, which are the second-largest fruit in the Chinese market after Thailand.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development has proposed changes to the draft Joint Statement on controlling Vietnam's seafood exports to China, including continuing to address barriers to live lobster exports, registering export businesses on the CIFER system, and proposing the addition of new species and products to the allowed export list.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade thinks that Vietnamese firms must restructure together, restructuring production, growth regions, and processing. In other words, companies must discard the concept that China is lax and instead regard it as a high-standard market with tight quality control. Export enterprises must also swiftly move from small-scale to mainstream exports while keeping up with China's emerging market trends.