The Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 released on July 23. (Photo: adb.org)

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) July 2025 released on July 23, the bank stated that strong export and import growth, along with a surge in foreign investment disbursement, drove economic performance in the first half of 2025.

Foreign direct investment pledges rose by 32.6%, while disbursement increased by 8.1% year-on-year, indicating strong international confidence in the country’s economic prospects. Public investment disbursement reached its highest level since 2018, at 31.7% of the annual plan and an increase of 19.8% from the same period in the previous year. Front-loading of exports to cope with the tariff uncertainty drove trade performance.

However, the ADB cautioned about potential risks stemming from instability in the international trade environment and higher US import tariffs that could impact both exports and investment flows.

Notwithstanding the heightened risks from tariff uncertainty, the domestic reforms, if effectively and swiftly implemented, the bank said, can mitigate such risks with strengthened domestic factors.

The projected GDP growth has been revised down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026. Inflation is forecast to decline to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.

In the broader regional context, the ADB forecast the Asia - Pacific’s economies will grow by 4.7% this year, a 0.2 percentage point decline from the projection issued in April. The forecast for next year was lowered to 4.6% from 4.7%. The downgrades were driven by expectations of reduced exports amid higher US tariffs and global trade uncertainty, as well as weaker domestic demand.