At the Techcombank Investment Summit 2026, held in Hanoi on Saturday, Jens Lottner, CEO of Techcombank, said that if Vietnam follows a GDP growth trajectory of around 10%, capital formation needs could reach about $1.1 trillion over the next five years. Of this, around $500 billion would be needed for infrastructure and economic restructuring, he added.

The scale of this need shows that the challenge is not only about finding more money, but also about the structure of capital supply to the economy. For many years, bank credit has remained the dominant source of financing. However, the banking system may find it difficult to continue shouldering most of the economy's capital needs.

Speaking at a discussion at the event, Nguyen Xuan Bac, deputy head of the credit department under the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), also noted that commercial banks' funding is primarily short-term, while infrastructure projects require large amounts of capital with long payback periods.

"Bank credit can be a pillar, but it cannot and should not be the sole source of funding," Bac said. According to him, resources need to be mobilized through multiple channels, including the state budget, credit, official development assistance (ODA), concessional financing from international financial institutions, and domestic and foreign investors.

The National Assembly, the country's legislative body, has approved the 2026-2030 medium-term public investment plan with total capital of VND8,220 trillion ($315.88 billion), comprising VND3,800 trillion from the central budget and VND4,420 trillion from local budgets.

This represents a significant pool of resources, but still accounts for only part of the economy's total investment needs. Under the plan, public investment is expected to account for about 20-22% of total society's investment. The remainder will still have to come from businesses, bank credit, the stock market, the bond market, and foreign capital. The gap becomes even clearer when looking at the current scale of capital mobilization in the capital markets.

According to the State Securities Commission, total capital raised through share offerings and private placements of corporate bonds in 2025 reached VND763.5 trillion ($29.34 billion). By mid-June 2026, capital raised through share offerings had reached VND114.1 trillion ($4.38 billion), while private corporate bond placements stood at VND148.8 trillion ($5.72 billion).

This shows that the scale of capital mobilization through the securities market remains modest compared with capital needs of around VND5,100 trillion ($196 billion) for 2026 alone.

Bank credit therefore remains difficult to replace in the short term. It has an extensive distribution network and the ability to provide capital directly to businesses. The issue is that infrastructure projects or long-term investments with payback periods of decades are not always compatible with banks' funding structures.

Expanding funding channels to ease pressure on banks

A recent positive development is Vietnam's stock market status being upgraded by FTSE Russell from ‘frontier’ to ‘secondary emerging’, effective Monday. The move is seen as a notable shift in the market's ability to access international capital flows.

Under the roadmap, Vietnamese stocks will be added to FTSE Russell's indexes in four phases through September 2027. Leading brokerage Saigon Securities (SSI) estimated that in the first phase alone, Vanguard funds tracking the FTSE GEIS indexes could make net purchases of around $240 million in 27 Vietnamese stocks.

However, the impact of the status upgrade extends beyond the amount of capital that could flow into the market in the short term. More importantly, it could broaden the pool of investors able to access Vietnamese equities, creating additional opportunities for companies to raise equity capital and allowing the stock market to play a larger role in providing medium- and long-term funding to the economy.

Fiona Bassett, CEO of FTSE Russell, described Vietnam's upgrade as an important milestone, recognizing the progress and increasingly deep integration of Vietnam's capital markets into the international financial system. Inclusion in FTSE Russell's global benchmark indexes will also raise Vietnam's visibility among international investors, potentially supporting foreign capital inflows over time.

However, Vietnam's funding challenge is not only about attracting more capital but also about how capital is allocated and diversified. At the Techcombank Investment Summit 2026, Jing Zhao, a senior financial sector specialist at the World Bank Group, said the challenge is not simply to mobilize more money but also to determine how capital should be allocated.

According to Zhao, projects with significant social impact but low return potential will still need to rely on public funding. Projects with sufficiently attractive cash flows can raise private capital. For projects in between - those with potential but not yet sufficient capacity to obtain commercial financing, some public or concessional funding could serve as "seed capital," helping reduce risk and attract additional private capital.

From his perspective, Techcombank CEO Jens Lottner said Vietnam needs to develop more instruments suited to investments with a 10- to 15-year horizon. The country needs more equity capital, IPOs for companies to raise equity, and long-term infrastructure bonds and structured finance solutions, he said.

Another option is to securitize assets generating stable cash flows through real estate investment trusts (REITs) or asset-backed securities (ABS), thereby raising capital for reinvestment in new projects.

The CEO also emphasized the role of the International Financial Center, located in both Ho Chi Minh City and Danang. According to him, this center could become "funnels for capital," connecting international funds with domestic investment needs, particularly for large-scale projects requiring complex financial structures.

In addition, according to the WB, long-term capital could also come from institutional investors such as insurers, pension funds and investment funds. These investors are better suited to the long life cycles of infrastructure projects while helping reduce pressure on commercial banks' balance sheets.

Last week, Vietnam’s benchmark VN-Index on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange closed at 1,815.66 points, up 20.45 points or 1.14% from the previous week.