As the company's sales mix shifts more heavily toward overseas markets, global urea prices and supply from China have emerged as key variables to watch in the final quarter.

DMC sold 662,330 tons of urea in the first eight months of 2026, including 395,090 tons for export, 47.8% more than the 267,240 tons sold domestically. Overseas markets therefore accounted for about 59.6% of DCM's total urea sales during the period.

The notable point is not only the export share but also the gap between actual exports and the company's initial plan. DCM had set a target of exporting 275,000 tons of urea in 2026, but had already reached 395,090 tons after eight months, or 43.7% above its full-year target. Domestic urea sales, meanwhile, stood at 267,240 tons, equivalent to about 53.9% of the full-year target.

The trend was already evident in the first half of the year. According to the company, DCM exported about 354,400 tons of urea in the first six months, accounting for about 39.5% of total Vietnamese-origin urea exports.

Exports become a major outlet for Ca Mau Fertilizer

DCM's increased reliance on exports comes as domestic urea supply exceeds local demand. According to a report by brokerage Mirae Asset, Vietnam's annual urea demand is about 1.8 million tons, while the combined designed capacity of the country's four major plants is around 2.6 million tons, implying a theoretical surplus of about 800,000 tons.

Against this backdrop, overseas markets have become an important outlet for domestic urea producers, particularly as international prices remain elevated.

According to DCM data compiled from S&P, average urea prices in four key reference markets reached about $592 per ton in the first half of 2026, up 61.5% from a year earlier. In the second quarter alone, the average was about $668 per ton, 79% higher than in the same quarter of 2025 and up 31.1% from the first quarter.

The favourable price environment was reflected in DCM's business results. Urea revenue at the parent company reached over VND6.87 trillion ($264.05 million) in the first half, up 40.8% from a year earlier, while its gross margin rose to 28.7% from 23.8%.

DCM said the improvement was driven by higher sales volumes and its ability to take advantage of market prices.

On a consolidated basis, revenue from exported urea reached nearly VND4.55 trillion ($174.8 million) in the first six months, more than double the nearly VND2.14 trillion recorded a year earlier. Domestic urea revenue, by contrast, fell to nearly VND2.27 trillion ($87.2 million) from over VND2.71 trillion.

The broader industry picture also shows that fertiliser exports have remained substantial this year. Data from the National Statistics Office showed Vietnam exported nearly 1.9 million tons of various fertilisers worth more than $1.02 billion in the first seven months.

The average export price for all types of fertiliser rose from about $400 per ton in January to around $672 per ton in May before falling to about $480 per ton in July. The figures cover all fertilisers rather than urea alone, but they illustrate how sharply export prices can fluctuate from month to month.

Global prices offer opportunity, China poses a countervailing risk

In September, the international urea market gained another potential source of support on the supply side. Mirae Asset said tensions in the Middle East and shipping disruptions were creating a short-term urea shortage.

About 34% of global urea trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning developments in the region could directly affect supplies on international markets.

Given DCM's current sales mix, external market developments have become more significant for the company. With nearly 60% of its urea sales in the first eight months destined for overseas markets, international urea prices, demand from major importing markets and China's export policy have a more direct impact on its business performance.

The impact, however, is not necessarily positive.

As early as the end of the second quarter, DCM warned that additional export quotas from China and the return of Middle Eastern supplies could put downward pressure on prices. The company also noted that urea prices had cooled toward the end of the second quarter after surging in April and May.

Mirae Asset likewise said an expansion of urea supply from China could narrow profit margins for producers in the region.

On the production side, the Ca Mau Fertilizer Plant is scheduled to undergo a 12-day major maintenance shutdown in September, reducing planned urea production for the month to 46,870 tons.

However, DCM's consolidated net inventory value stood at over VND5.66 trillion ($217.66 million) at the end of the second quarter, nearly 18% higher than at the start of the year. This means a temporary production shortfall is unlikely to be a major variable for DCM.

With urea exports already exceeding the full-year target after eight months, the key factors to watch in the final quarter are likely to be international price levels and the volume of Chinese supply returning to the market.

If global supply remains tight, DCM's high export exposure could allow it to benefit from favorable prices. Conversely, if China significantly increases exports and urea prices correct, the company's heavier reliance on overseas markets would also make its business performance more sensitive to external market movements.