A product of Pomina. Photo courtesy of the company.

In its latest report assessing VinMetal’s entry into the steel market and the possibility of acquiring Pomina Steel Corp (UPCoM: POM), HSC said VinMetal could leverage Pomina’s idle capacity to supply construction steel internally for Vinhomes projects.

Vinhomes is also a subsidiary of Vingroup - the biggest listed company in Vietnam by market capitalization.

Following site inspections, the broker said Pomina’s usable assets include a construction steel rolling mill with a designed capacity of 1.5 million tons per year and a blast furnace with 1 million tons of capacity planned for upstream production.

However, since becoming operational in 2019, the blast furnace has created a heavy investment burden of VND5.9 trillion ($233.7 million) for Pomina and has faced prolonged shutdowns due to operational challenges and limited technical expertise.

“Last year, Thaco attempted to revive the blast furnace by providing liquidity support but was unsuccessful. Pomina reported net losses of VND960 billion in 2023, VND990 billion in 2024, and VND512 billion ($19.41 million) in the first nine months of 2025. As of end-September 2025, total debt reached VND6 trillion ($227.5 million) while equity was negative VND187 billion ($7.1 million),” the report said.

HSC noted that if VinMetal completes the acquisition and restores existing facilities, the 1.5-million-ton construction steel capacity could re-enter the market, equivalent to around 10-11% of estimated annual demand of over 13 million tons.

If Pomina’s position strengthens after a takeover, competitive pressure could rise and potentially erode market share of current industry leaders, including Hoa Phat Group (HoSE: HPG), HSC added.

Comprehensive restructuring required

VinMetal initially emphasized a strategy built on modern technology and import substitution products, such as rail steel and steel for automotive manufacturing, and a long-term vision for green steel.

According to HSC, Pomina’s current facilities and technology are outdated and inconsistent with these goals.

Therefore, if Vingroup proceeds with the takeover, it would need to carry out comprehensive restructuring. This includes substantial capital investment to upgrade obsolete plants and further investment in flat-steel and shaped-steel production to meet targets for automotive steel and rail steel.

“Without such significant and costly measures, acquiring Pomina would not be an optimal or effective approach for Vingroup’s long-term steel strategy,” HSC said.

HSC assessed that VinMetal’s entry poses short-term competitive risks for Hoa Phat, though limited, given Hoa Phat’s proven economies of scale and operational track record. Longer-term implications will depend on VinMetal’s execution of its strategy and investment commitments.

Pomina shares have surged over the past three trading sessions. POM closed at VND2,900 on November 21, up 11.54% from the reference price, after rising 13.04% on November 14 and 15% on November 7.

The gains come despite trading restrictions that limit POM transactions to Fridays only. The stock was delisted from HoSE in May 2024 for severe violations of disclosure obligations and is now traded on the UPCoM market.

Vingroup (HoSE: VIC) on October 6 announced the establishment of VinMetal Joint Stock Company for Manufacturing and Trading, officially entering the metallurgy industry and expanding its existing industrials and technology pillar.

The new company aims to meet the internal material needs of Vingroup's ecosystem while contributing to the development of Vietnam's heavy industry, Vingroup said in a press release. VinMetal has an initial investment of VND10 trillion ($380 million).