Several international organisations have recently issued their latest forecasts for Vietnam’s economy this year. According to the latest edition of Asian Development Outlook (ADO) by Asian Development Bank (ADB) on July 17, Vietnam’s growth projections for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged. The economy is continuing its steady recovery, with a 6.4 per cent expansion in the first half of 2024.

Growth was supported by the strong recovery of both imports and exports and the revival of domestic demand as monetary policy remained accommodative. External demand for major electronics exports fuelled industrial production, but subdued global economic prospects left some uncertainty. Growth has also been supported by fiscal measures such as the continued two per cent reduction in VAT and efforts to better implement public investment.

Going forward, the economic recovery should continue, with growth forecasts remaining at 6 per cent for 2024 and 6.2 per cent for 2025, the bank noted.

On July 16, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) also released the July edition of its ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), raising its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth to 6.3 per cent in 2024. This is 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast of 6 per cent made in April and the highest among ASEAN nations.

"Brighter global demand prospects are reflected in the upward growth revision for Vietnam," AMRO explained, adding that it maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2025 at 6.5 per cent.

Similarly, HSBCon June 12 raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth for this year to 6.5 per cent from its previous forecast of 6 per cent, after second-quarter growth beat expectations.

"Beyond headline numbers, its recovery has started to show signs of broadening out," HSBC said in a note. "However, inflation appears to be an imminent concern with higher pork prices, resulting from an African swine fever outbreak, keeping inflation elevated on a year-on-year basis in June."

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also predicted Vietnam's economic growth at close to 6 per cent in 2024, supported by continued strong external demand, resilient foreign direct investment, and accommodative policies.