Chart: T.Binh

Deep reduction

Although 2023 has not yet ended, with recent results and developments, there are almost no mutations that can help this key commodity industry reach the US $10 billion mark.

According to preliminary statistics of the General Department of Customs, from the beginning of the year to November 15, seafood exports only reached US $7.82 billion, a sharp decrease of 19.8% compared to the same period last year (equivalent to a decrease of US $1.93 billion USD).

With the above results, the average monthly revenue of this industry is only about US $745 million. While to reach the US $10 billion mark, in the last 1.5 months of the year, seafood exports must reach US $2.18 billion, equivalent to more than US $1.45 billion/month.

This is an impossible number, because it is not only double the average result achieved in the first 10.5 months of the year, but in the history of seafood export, the seafood industry has never recorded a turnover reaching this mark.

For example, 2022, a record-setting year with export turnover reaching US $10.92 billion, will reach just over US $900 million on average each month.

With recent results and recent signs of improvement, it is expected that seafood export turnover in 2023 will exceed US $9 billion, down US $1.92 billion compared to 2022 but slightly higher than US $8.90 billion in 2021.

Although not equal to the result in 2022, the figure of US$ 9 billion is a remarkable level in the context of the global and domestic economy facing many challenges.

The major export markets of the seafood industry are the United States, China, Japan, EU...

Expecting the sprint stage

According to statistical data of the General Department of Customs, seafood exports have recently had positive changes, as in October, the turnover reached more than US $841 million, an increase of 3.4% compared to the previous September.

Recently, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) estimated that November turnover will continue to maintain the same number as October.

Thus, in the last two months, seafood export turnover has been higher than the average level of the first months of the year (as mentioned above, the average level of the first months of the year was only US $745 million USD/month).

It is notable, the key export product groups of the seafood industry all maintained remarkable increases in November. Specifically, shrimp exports increased by 4%, tuna increased by 26%, pangasius increased by 12%, squid increased by 4% and octopus increased by 3%, other marine fish increased by 4%...

By the end of November, pangasius exports are estimated to reach nearly US $ 1.7 billion and export activities of this product are showing more positive signs in some markets of China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, England... In addition to the main product, it is pangasius fillets, and by-products such as dried pangasius bladder and pangasius patties are of interest to many markets such as the United States, China, Malaysia, Singapore...

For shrimp products, by the end of November, it is estimated to reach US $3.15 billion. According to VASEP, China will likely maintain a strong import trend in the last quarter of 2023 to compensate for the peak consumption season of December, January and February 2024, along with the demand for shrimp in the Southeast Asia and the Far East are expected to improve at the end of the year during Christmas, New Year and Lunar New Year, this is a favorable signal to increase the turnover of this product.

The third most important product of the seafood industry is tuna with an estimated eleven-month turnover of about US $774 million.

VASEP evaluates that, compared to other products, tuna has a more positive signal. Although exports to the United States decreased by 35%, many markets such as the EU, Thailand, Israel, Mexico, Russia, Korea, Philippines, and Japan are tending to increase imports of Vietnamese tuna.

With the above calculation, VASEP estimates that shrimp exports in 2023 will earn about US $3.4 billion (down 21% compared to last year); Pangasius is estimated to reach US $1.8 billion (down 25%); tuna reached US $850 million (down 15%).