In the early days of 2026, the interbank market saw short-term rates increase quite strongly. Market observations showed that one-week interbank rates at times reached double-digit levels during trading sessions before and after Tet.

Notably, overnight rates briefly surged to a record high of nearly 17%, even touching 17.25% at their peak on February 3. Experts from the Viet Nam Banks Association (VNBA) identified the primary cause as seasonal liquidity tightening. Cash demand among the public rose sharply before and during Tet, leading to the withdrawal of idle funds and putting pressure on short-term VND reserves within the banking system.

In response to these developments, the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV) intensified the use of open market operations (OMO) to inject liquidity. The total volume of Government bonds and SBV bills issued in the first week of February amounted to approximately 229.79 trillion VND (8.77 billion USD), while maturities stood at around 70.64 trillion VND (2.69 billion USD), indicating a substantial net injection of nearly 160 trillion VND (6.11 billion USD) to stabilise the monetary market.

According to SBV Deputy Governor Pham Thanh Ha, the SBV’s liquidity management objective is to act flexibly and in line with short-term VND supply-demand balances, thereby maintaining stability in the interbank market and preventing prolonged volatility.

In the retail market, during the first working week after Tet, many commercial banks adjusted deposit rates upwards for medium- and long-term tenors. Several private commercial banks announced rates for 12–24 month deposits at around 7% per annum, with some listing as high as 7.2% per annum for longer maturities. Promotional packages offering bonus interest or Tet lucky money gifts were also widely launched to attract idle funds from the public.

From a market perspective, post-Tet competition for deposits is a recurring phenomenon as personal funds return to savings channels after the holiday. For depositors, attractive post-Tet rates present an opportunity to increase short-term savings income. However, according to a senior executive at a major joint-stock commercial bank, the effective deposit rate should be carefully analysed when preferential conditions and holding periods apply, in order to avoid misconceptions about the overall interest rate environment. “Depositors should pay close attention to the actual returns on their savings, including early withdrawal terms, bonus interest conditions, and deposit size requirements,” the executive added.

The noticeable uptick in interest rates compared with the second half of 2025 suggests that banks are proactively mobilising capital to balance liquidity and prepare for early-year credit demand. “Banks are deliberately raising deposit rates to attract funds, particularly as credit growth outpaces deposit growth. This is a strategic move aimed at reducing the loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) while maintaining capital buffers for lending activities in the coming quarters,” observed banking expert Nguyen Quang Huy.

Meanwhile, in the credit market, particularly for homebuyers and consumer borrowers, many banks have also adjusted lending rates upwards to between 12% and 14% per annum.

Experts note that as net interest margins come under pressure and input funding costs rise, adjusting lending rates is a market-driven response. This inevitably places some strain on borrowers’ cash flows. Enterprises are also advised to carefully calculate funding costs in their 2026 business plans.

Nevertheless, the Government and the SBV continue efforts to maintain support packages. Specifically, from 2026, the SBV is expected to provide a 2% interest rate subsidy for loans financing green economy and circular economy projects, thereby easing the burden on enterprises pursuing sustainable transformation.

Chairman of the Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank (MB), Luu Trung Thai, stated that, overall, interest rate levels in the economy need to be maintained at reasonable levels to balance capital mobilisation with investment and consumption stimulus. Lending rates, he added, will also be kept at appropriate levels for prioritised sectors.

In practice, differentiation in credit policy is becoming increasingly evident. Priority sectors such as manufacturing, business, exports, and high-tech agriculture continue to benefit from preferential packages in line with directives from the Government and the SBV. Conversely, sectors with higher risk profiles or heavy capital requirements, such as real estate, are facing far less favourable interest rate conditions.

Deputy Chief Executive Officer and Head of Retail Banking at Techcombank, Nguyen Anh Tuan, forecast that funding costs this year may rise by around 0.65% compared with 2025. However, he noted that such an increase could be considered consistent with periods of strong economic growth in Viet Nam and would not significantly disrupt current lending and deposit activities.

Economic expert Ho Ba Tinh also projected that interest rates in 2026 may edge higher than in 2025 to balance risks, though a prolonged sharp surge is unlikely.

“In a highly volatile environment, businesses and investors need to exercise greater caution in financial decisions. Enterprises seeking to expand investment must carefully calculate actual funding costs while interest rates remain relatively high,” Ho Ba Tinh recommended.

In the short term, KB Securities Viet Nam expects that as banks raise deposit rates to strengthen funding sources, the gap between credit and deposit growth will gradually narrow after the first quarter of 2026. As a result, pressure on system liquidity and interbank rate levels may ease, while the SBV will still retain flexibility in its monetary management through open market instruments to ensure the stability of the monetary system and banking operations.