Savills Vietnam said in its Q3 market report that primary apartment supply in the city fell quarter-on-quarter but surged year-on-year to about 5,200 units, mainly in the eastern and western areas.

New launches reached roughly 2,000 units from one new project and subsequent phases of five others, still insufficient to meet real demand.

Transactions rose to 2,700 units during the quarter, with an absorption rate of 51%, supported by stable end-user and investment demand. Despite some discounts at large-scale projects to clear inventory, prices in both the primary and secondary markets have continued to strongly rise.

The market is becoming increasingly polarized, with affordable housing demand shifting to satellite provinces.

In the first nine months of 2025, apartments priced below VND3 billion ($113,900) accounted for just 9% of transactions in HCMC but more than 60% in nearby provinces. Binh Duong alone captured about 90% of affordable apartment sales in the southern region.

Future supply is expected to remain limited in the short term, while prices are forecast to keep increasing. Savills projects around 60,000 new units from 80 projects by 2028.

Market sentiment is improving and new supply is starting to return, but apartment prices are moving further out of reach for many buyers, said Troy Griffiths, deputy managing director of Savills Vietnam.

Middle-income buyers almost priced out

According to CBRE Vietnam, new apartments in HCMC are now priced between VND80 million and VND120 million ($4,560) per square meter, with some projects reaching VND150 million ($5,700). Most of these belong to the high-end and luxury segments.

About 2,500 units were launched in Q3, an improvement from the first half of the year but still far below demand. The mid-end segment has effectively disappeared, creating a severe supply-demand imbalance.

Vo Huynh Tuan Kiet, an expert from CBRE Vietnam, commented that for large cities like HCMC, the current population size is very high, which means that the real housing demand of the majority of people is also constantly increasing. “However, most new projects are in the premium segment, making homeownership nearly impossible for middle-income families and young buyers.”

Le Hoang Chau, chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), said the city’s housing market is suffering from a serious supply-demand mismatch.

In 2020, only 163 affordable apartments were launched citywide, accounting for just 1% of total supply. From 2021 to 2023, there were no new affordable housing projects at all, with premium homes consistently making up about 70% of new supply.

In 2024, there was no new mid-range housing in HCMC, as all new launches were in the high-end segment. In the first half of 2025, the city released only 3,353 new apartments - all classified as high-end.

“Supply is falling behind demand, and that inevitably drives prices higher,” Chau said. “If we want to cool the market, the first thing we must do is increase supply.”