Despite difficulties, with efforts from the State and enterprises, Vietnam has reached a record high export growth in the first five months of this year. Although there will be negative impacts from the pandemic, it is forecasted that import-export activities will continue to prosper in the future.

Exports increased to the highest level in 10 years

According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, from the beginning of the year to the end of May 2021, export turnover of goods is estimated at US$130.94 billion, up 30.7% over the same period last year. In the past five months, there are 22 items with export turnover of over US$1 billion, accounting for 87.3% of total export turnover.

In comparison with the long-distance export, economist Le Quoc Phuong said that compared to the same period in the first five months of the year from 2012 to now, the export growth in the first five months of 2021 is the highest growth rate. Therefore, this is the highest growth rate compared to the general growth rate from 2012.

“The fourth wave of the Covid-19 pandemic that broke out from the end of April 2021 until now is the most serious wave, affecting large industrial zones for the first time, especially in Bac Ninh and Bac Giang. Therefore, the export results achieved from the beginning of the year to the end of May 2021 are very impressive in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic that has heavily affected our economy and exports,” Le Quoc Phuong said.

In-depth analysis of the industry perspective, in the first five months of 2021, the export turnover of processed industrial products and agricultural, forestry and fishery products still increased sharply compared to the same period last year, while the group mineral fuels are still in a downtrend. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development shows that the export of agricultural, forestry and fishery products in the past five months was estimated at US$22.83 billion, up 30.3% over the same period last year.

Wood and wood products have always been the commodity group that maintains the steadiest growth in the export of agriculture, forestry, and fishery in general, despite the Covid-19 pandemic that has taken place since 2020. Talking to a reporter from Customs News, Prof. Dr. Pham Van Dien, Deputy Director of the General Department of Forestry (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said that strong export growth is one of the important indicators to reflect the development of the entire forestry industry. The export momentum is developing well, this is not only the result of one year or of the industry alone, but also of the whole process and of the whole system.

With the group of processed industrial products; although growth slowed down in the last two months, the Ministry of Industry and Trade stated that in general, in the first five months of 2021, export turnover still maintained a high growth rate of 34.3% compared to 2020, estimated at US$113.05 billion, accounting for 86.3% of the total export turnover of the country.

This growth momentum comes from most of the key products such as: phones of all kinds and components; computers, electronic products and components increased.

Notably, exports of textiles, apparel and footwear of all kinds also had a clear recovery with growth of 15% and 26.4% respectively, compared to the first five months of 2020.

Import and export continue to increase

According to economic experts, import-export activities will continue to prosper in the future when the Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) are gradually being implemented in a more comprehensive and effective manner.

In particular, FTAs such as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Vietnam-EU FTA (EVFTA), the Vietnam-UK FTA (UKFTA), etc. will continue to create conditions for Vietnamese goods penetrating into partner markets with preferential tariffs, thereby promoting strong export growth.

Besides, the representative of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said that the price of export goods is also on the rise, especially the strong products of Vietnam will be an important driving force to increase export value.

In addition, in the US and European countries, which are gradually or completely lifting the lockdown order when a sufficient number of vaccines have been administered, the demand for goods on the world market is recovering. This is an opportunity for Vietnam to promote the export of strong consumer industrial products.

Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (Vitas), said that the fourth Covid-19 wave has created many challenges for businesses. However, the recovery momentum of the textile industry will continuously increase. Currently, enterprises in the textile industry are receiving a lot of orders. There are enterprises that have enough production orders until the end of this year. Therefore, this year's export target is completely achievable.

In addition to favorable factors, Vietnam's import and export activities are forecasted to be negatively affected by the 4th wave of Covid-19 in many localities, especially some key provinces and cities in the region.

The North such as Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Hanoi, are the localities with the largest scale of import-export turnover of the whole country. Meanwhile in the world, Asia continues to be the focus with the number of new Covid-19 infections rapidly increasing, causing a series of markets such as India, Japan, Taiwan (China), Indonesia or Thailand imposing a blockade and tightening control measures to limit the spread of the disease.

"Enterprises themselves must strive to improve their competitiveness as well as adaptability to overcome difficulties, proactively change direction to effectively capture opportunities from the new context," said Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Department and Head of the Import-Export Department of the Ministry of Industry and Trade said.

In the second half of 2021, the Ministry of Industry and Trade determines to promote exports through consolidating and expanding export markets, taking full advantage of the FTAs that have taken effect; continue to closely monitor the development of the Covid-19 pandemic in the world to take timely response measures.