According to the State Bank of Vietnam’s latest Business Trends Survey for the third quarter of 2026 released on July 7, credit institutions assessed that the banking system’s overall business performance and pre-tax profits continued to improve in the second quarter compared with the previous quarter and remained relatively stable.

Business conditions are expected to continue improving in the third quarter, while the outlook for the full year of 2026 remains optimistic.

Accordingly, 84.1 per cent of credit institutions expect positive pre-tax profit growth compared with 2025. Only 10.6 per cent anticipate negative profit growth this year, while 5.3 per cent expect profits to remain unchanged.

Internal factors continue to provide strong support for the banking sector

Internal factors continue to provide strong support for the banking sector. Between 69.9 per cent and 76.8 per cent of credit institutions said internal factors either contributed or are expected to contribute to improving business performance in the second quarter and throughout 2026, with optimism increasing compared with the previous survey.

At the same time, external factors are also viewed more positively than in the previous survey. Around 67 per cent of credit institutions said external conditions had helped improve business performance, while 72.3 per cent expect these factors to continue supporting business conditions throughout 2026.

Looking at the year as a whole, credit institutions expect overall risk across customer segments to increase compared with 2025.

The two most vulnerable groups are joint stock companies, limited liability companies and private enterprises, together with small and medium-sized enterprises.

The survey also found that the banking system’s non-performing loan ratio continued to edge lower. However, the pace of improvement slowed during the second quarter and is expected to strengthen again in the third quarter of 2026.

Research teams at several securities firms also forecast positive business prospects for the banking sector. According to MBS Research, banks are expected to maintain growth momentum in the second quarter of 2026 despite interest rates remaining at relatively high levels.

Among banks participating in Vietnam’s mandatory bank transfer programme, which benefit from higher credit growth quotas, VPBank is forecast to post the strongest growth, with second-quarter net profit reaching approximately $300 million, up 54 per cent on-year. HDBank is expected to report net profit of around $215 million, representing growth of 46 per cent.

Among the state lenders, Vietcombank is projected to record second-quarter net profit of approximately $411 million, up 16 per cent from a year earlier.

VietinBank is expected to earn around $441 million, an increase of 13 per cent, while BIDV is forecast to post approximately $317 million, up 15 per cent.

Within the group of major private banks, Techcombank is expected to report second-quarter net profit of around $299 million, up 18 per cent on-year. Meanwhile, ACB is forecast to remain broadly flat at approximately $196 million.

MBS Research also expects VIB, OCB and TPBank to deliver positive results. Their respective second-quarter net profits are forecast at approximately $104 million - up 25 per cent, $38 million - up 20 per cent, and $73 million - up 12 per cent.

However, LPBank, Eximbank and Sacombank are expected to face greater challenges. Their second-quarter net profits are projected at approximately $90 million - down 6 per cent, $12 million - down 39 per cent, and $67 million - down 42 per cent, respectively.

Analysts believe the State Bank of Vietnam’s recent credit expansion measures will help banks improve their lending capacity, thereby supporting stronger business performance in the coming quarters.

Regarding the policy allowing banks to exclude outstanding loans for social housing and industrial parks and export processing zones when calculating real estate credit growth limits, Do Minh Trang, head of the Market Strategy and Research Department at ACBS, said the move created additional room for banks with strengths in lending to these real estate segments to expand financing.

“With a flexible and selective credit management policy, banks’ growth prospects and risk profiles will become increasingly differentiated. Institutions that enjoy low funding costs, diversified loan portfolios with limited concentration risk and strong asset quality will be best positioned to outperform,” she said.

Nguyen Thi Phuong Lam, head of Research at Viet Dragon Securities Corporation, also believes that credit expansion policies will provide banks with greater capacity to extend financing.

“If banks continue to improve asset quality and real estate credit is channelled into the right segments – those with genuine demand, real market liquidity and healthy cash flow turnover – business performance will improve. Macroeconomic indicators are recovering steadily, while monetary policy is becoming increasingly supportive of selective growth. In my view, the greatest opportunities will belong to banks that can sustain strong credit growth while effectively controlling funding costs and non-performing loans,” Lam said.