In front of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) in Hanoi. Photo by The Investor/Lien Thuong.

January 2026 has already delivered a strong start. As of the close on Tuesday, the VN-Index rose to 1,893.78 points, up nearly 6% from the start of the year.

Speaking at a recent Financial Street talk show on Vietnam Television, Le Quang Chung, deputy CEO of broker Smart Invest (AAS), cited three key factors supporting the market.

The first is seasonality, as capital typically returns at the start of the year, signalling the re-emergence of speculative flows after four months of declining liquidity.

Second is renewed expectations, with investors beginning to price in 2026 themes such as faster economic growth, a potential market status upgrade (from frontier to secondary emerging) and improved corporate earnings.

Chung added that an analysis by BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, highlighting opportunities in markets including China, Mexico and Vietnam, has also helped buoy sentiment.

He said capital is no longer concentrated solely in a handful of large-cap stocks, as in previous phases, but is spreading across multiple sectors. “This indicates the market is entering a healthier phase, with a more sustainable uptrend that is less dependent on a single group of leaders,” he said.

Le Quang Chung, deputy CEO of Smart Invest (left), and Nguyen Trung Hieu, deputy CEO of National Securities. Photo courtesy of the Financial Street talk show.

Nguyen Trung Hieu, deputy CEO of another brokerage, National Securities (NSI), said the market is operating like “interconnected vessels with guidance”, supported by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and liquidity management by Vietnam’s central bank.

As year-end liquidity pressures eased in late 2025, sidelined funds began flowing into sectors with attractive valuations and limited prior gains, such as banking, securities and public investment plays.

Hieu attributed the shift largely to Resolution 79 issued by the Politburo on state sector economic development, which he said has altered investor psychology. The new resolution sent the message that the state-owned economy plays a leading, pioneering role.

“Smart money has quickly rotated into large state-owned stocks,” he said, adding that flows have broadened beyond private banks and residential real estate into state-owned groups in finance, oil and gas, rubber, chemicals and infrastructure.

VN-Index may reach 2,000

Looking ahead to 2026, analysts said the market will be underpinned by stronger economic growth lifting corporate profits, expectations of a market status upgrade attracting medium- and long-term foreign capital, and interest rates remaining at supportive levels for equity valuations.

Chung said 2026 is more likely to be a year of “growth in depth”, with pronounced differentiation across sectors and companies rather than a market-wide rally.

Hieu forecast the VN-Index could climb to the 1,950-2,000 range in 2026, based on a compound growth scenario featuring a 10% GDP target, alongside new policy resolutions promoting the private sector (Resolution 68), the state economy (Resolution 79), and international integration (Resolution 59).

He added that central bank guidance directing credit into core production and business activities could drive listed companies’ earnings growth above 20%, well above the average in many previous years.

Another tailwind could come from re-rating, Hieu said, if Vietnam is officially upgraded by FTSE in September 2026, allowing the market to trade at a higher price-to-earnings multiple of around 16.5-17.5 times, up from about 14 times.

Still, Chung cautioned that after the January rally, the market may pause as liquidity thins ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, entering a consolidation phase. He expects momentum to resume from late March through April, driven by audited 2025 financial statements, Q1/2026 earnings, annual shareholder meetings, and FTSE Russell’s review.

“When Resolutions 68 and 79 begin to show results, key projects are disbursed more forcefully, corporate earnings impress and foreign capital moves in ahead of the upgrade, the market could stage a strong final push to reach the 2,000-point mark,” Chung added.