The brokerage's (MBS) research division forecasts Q3 net profit growth of as much as 86% year-on-year among major port operators, supported by stronger international trade, continued manufacturing diversification, and congestion at regional transshipment hubs.

Vietnam's total import-export turnover rose about 29.6% year-on-year in Q3, while cargo throughput across the country's seaport system is expected to increase 21.7%, said the report.

The Hai Phong city port cluster is forecast to record 9.7% growth in handling volume, while throughput at the Ho Chi Minh City port cluster is expected to rise 8.6%.

MBS attributed the growth to the continued shift of supply chains under the "China+1" strategy, recovering demand in major export markets, and inventory restocking ahead of the year-end shopping season.

Geopolitical tensions and congestion at major Asian transshipment hubs have also prompted shipping lines to adjust service routes and increase calls at established gateways such as Hai Phong and HCMC, the brokerage said.

Deep-water ports lead earnings growth

Deep-water terminal operators are expected to capture a large share of the sector's earnings growth on their higher margins and operating leverage.

Gemadept Corp (HoSE: GMD) is forecast to post the strongest profit growth among companies covered by MBS, with Q3 net profit expected to rise 86% year-on-year to VND587 billion ($22.61 million). Its full-year 2026 net profit is projected at VND2.73 trillion ($104.98 million), up 55% from 2025.

Gemadept's system-wide cargo throughput is expected to increase 6.3%, supported by two new service routes at the Nam Dinh Vu port complex in Hai Phong. Its Gemalink deep-water terminal in southern Vietnam is operating above design capacity, with handling volume projected to rise 27.3%, boosting income from joint ventures and associates.

Hai Phong Port JSC (UPCoM: PHP) is forecast to report net profit of VND430 billion ($16.56 million) in Q3, up 65% year-on-year, while full-year profit is expected to reach VND1.24 trillion ($47.75 million), up 50.6%.

The earnings growth is supported by an estimated 17% increase in average service tariffs and higher contributions from Lach Huyen berths 3 and 4.

Average utilization at the berths is projected at about 48% in the first nine months of 2026, with regional trade growth and new service calls by Mediterranean Shipping Co supporting volumes, MBS said.

Vietnam Container Shipping JSC (Viconship, HoSE: VSC) is expected to post net profit of VND146 billion ($5.62 million) in Q3, up 85%, while full-year profit is forecast at VND370 billion ($14.25 million), an 8.5% increase.

Excluding VIMC Dinh Vu, VSC's port volume is expected to rise 6%. Utilization at Nam Hai Dinh Vu is projected to reach 73.6%, compared with 51.5% a year earlier.

A 6.5% average tariff increase is expected to lift VSC's gross profit margin by 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, while higher earnings from its affiliate Hai An will provide additional support.

Container shipping company Hai An Transport & Stevedoring JSC (HoSE: HAH) is also expected to maintain earnings growth despite higher bunker fuel costs. HAH's Q3 net profit is forecast to increase 12% year-on-year to VND339 billion ($13.06 million), while full-year profit is projected at VND1.39 trillion ($53.57 million), up 15.2%.

The company has offset higher fuel costs through port service price increases, tighter administrative expenses, fleet expansion, and the transition of one vessel from a bareboat lease to self-operation. New time-charter contracts secured at favorable rates during the first nine months of 2026 are also expected to support earnings.

Couriers squeezed by higher fuel prices

The outlook is weaker for domestic courier and postal operators.

Domestic retail sales of consumer goods increased 13.2% year-on-year, and road freight traffic rose 18% in August, supported by continued e-commerce growth. But fuel prices rose an estimated 52.3% over the same period, putting pressure on the margins of traditional delivery networks.

Viettel Post JSC (HoSE: VTP) is expected to show greater resilience than its peers. Q3 net profit is forecast to rise 11% year-on-year to VND95 billion ($3.66 million), although full-year profit is expected to fall 6.1% to VND352 billion ($13.56 million) after margin pressure in the first half.

Viettel Post has responded by introducing fuel surcharges and raising last-mile delivery tariffs by more than 15% year-on-year.

The company is also using its large vehicle fleet to expand higher-margin inter-provincial and heavy-parcel transport, while increasing contributions from contract logistics and cross-border fulfillment. MBS expects Viettel Post to begin recognizing initial profits from its commercial partnership with FedEx in Q3.

The divergence in operating performance has also been reflected in the stock market. Logistics stocks broadly pulled back during the first nine months of 2026 amid higher fuel costs and margin pressure.

Gemadept and Hai Phong Port have been notable exceptions, supported by expanding capacity, higher tariffs, and stronger cargo volumes, according to MBS.