Vietnam’s GDP growth is expected to rebound to 7% in 2021, driven by a recovery in external demand, a resilient domestic economy, and increased production capacity, according to the preliminary assessment by the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).

The office said that after a sharp drop in the second quarter, Vietnam’s economic growth started to rebound in the third quarter of 2020, with a broad-based recovery.

Manufacturing activity was boosted by a robust export sector, which benefited from Vietnam’s relatively resilient export mix, as well as trade diversion from the US-China trade tension. Meanwhile, domestic consumption recovered following the relaxation of mobility restrictions, a result of the authorities’ effective COVID-19 containment efforts. Furthermore, the rebound benefited from an acceleration in the disbursement of public investment.

AMRO stressed that a protracted and uneven recovery of the global economy may jeopardise the recovery in external demand. While domestic demand has picked up after a relatively successful containment of the pandemic, it remains susceptible to the risk of further waves of COVID-19 infection. Moreover, scarring effects of the pandemic, such as the impairment of the balance sheets of the business sector, and the hit on labour market may undermine the prospect of recovery.

The office also highlighted the necessity for greater fiscal support through both revenue and expenditure measures in order to support the nascent economic recovery if the growth momentum are to weaken, while targeted support to micro, small and medium enterprises and low-income households needs to continue and be regularly reviewed for its relevance and effectiveness.

Enhancement of support programmes through simpler and better-targeted disbursement will facilitate the effective use of government funds, it added.

Given the benign inflation outlook, the office said that it is essential that monetary policy remains supportive of economic recovery, keeping financing costs affordable for households and businesses.

With more accommodative financial conditions, heightened supervision of lending to risky sectors remains warranted to mitigate the risk of an asset bubble. In addition, enhanced supervision in this sector is important in order to safeguard the quality of bank credit in the period ahead.

It is essential to ensure continued support for long-term development issues, such as infrastructure development, human capital development, social safety net, and particularly public health, while carefully managing risks to long-term fiscal sustainability, the AMRO said.