At a meeting between agro traders and Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on Wednesday, Do Ha Nam, chairman of Intimex Group and head of the Vietnam Food Association, warned that Vietnam could struggle to sell an estimated four million tons of surplus rice from the upcoming winter-spring harvest.

Vietnam expects to export around eight million tons of rice this year, potentially ranking as the world’s second-largest supplier. But shipments to the Philippines, which typically absorbs about half of Vietnam’s export volume, have been disrupted after Manila suspended imports for the past three months to protect local farmers.

The Philippines plans a partial reopening in January, but Nam said only 300,000 tons would be allowed before restrictions resume.

“In this situation, rice prices may decline sharply,” Nam said, urging the government to work with the Philippines on the market reopening.

In addition, he proposed that major traders, including state-owned firms, be allowed to purchase and store rice for up to six months to stabilize prices. He also called for greater focus on markets in the Middle East and Africa, citing progress in securing a government-to-government deal with Bangladesh this year.

In response, Agriculture and Environment Minister Tran Duc Thang said that Vietnam has nearly 200 rice import markets and exports roughly eight million tons annually. “We should not be overly concerned about the Philippines, though we always remain open to cooperation,” he said.

Thang urged exporters to expand beyond the Philippines market and develop demand in Southeast Asia and Africa. He added that the Mekong Delta’s high-quality one-million-hectare rice program, expected to generate output from 2025-2026, could help Vietnam break into premium markets such as Japan, which offers stable and higher prices.

Vietnam’s rice exports dropped sharply this year as key buyers tightened import policies and global prices cooled. The country exported 7.51 million tons worth $3.85 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, down 11% in volume and 27.4% in value from a year earlier. Average export prices slid 18.3% to $512 per ton, wiping out nearly $1.4 billion in export value so far this year, according to the General Statistics Office.