Despite economic volatility, Vietnamese retailers are forecast to deliver strong business results after the first three months of the year.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to economic fluctuations and heightened concerns about growth prospects for many businesses, Vietnam’s retail sector has shown positive signals and is expected to experience a strong breakout in the first quarter.

Customers shop goods at a supermarket. Photo by The Investor/Dang Kiet.

As the global economy remains uncertain, domestic consumption continues to serve as a key supporting pillar.

The government approved the Vietnam Retail Market Development Strategy at the end of last year, with a roadmap to 2030 and a vision extending to 2050, setting out notable growth targets.

By 2030, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (excluding price factors) are expected to maintain an average annual growth rate of 11-11.5%. E-commerce is projected to grow faster, at 15-20% annually, increasing its share to around 15-20% of the total retail market.

According to Saigon Securities (SSI), after the first three months of the year, leading companies are expected to post double-digit or even triple-digit profit growth compared to the same period last year.

For example, Masan Group (HoSE: MSN) is estimated to achieve after-tax profit of up to VND2.5 trillion ($94.93 million) in Q1, up 154% year-on-year. The main drivers include high tungsten prices, a strong recovery in the food and beverage segment, and improved efficiency in retail operations.

Meanwhile, the recovery of the technology-electronics segment, along with improved profit margins at the Bach Hoa Xanh grocery chain, is expected to serve as a “dual engine” for Mobile World Investment Corporation (HoSE: MWG), which is projected to report net profit of VND2.25 trillion ($85.43 million), up 45% year-on-year. If accurate, this would mark a record quarterly profit for MWG.

Notably, Phu Nhuan Jewelry (HoSE: PNJ) is forecast to grow by as much as 121%, bringing its Q1 profit to around VND1.5 trillion ($56.96 million). This growth is driven by improved gold supply, strong jewelry sales, and advantages from low-cost inventory.

The technology retail segment is also keeping pace. FPT Retail (HoSE: FRT), a subsidiary of tech giant FPT Corp., is expected to reach around VND370 billion ($14.05 million) in profit, up 74% year-on-year, supported by demand for electronic device upgrades and steady growth in its pharmacy chain.

Similarly, Digiworld (HoSE: DGW) may record profit of approximately VND170 billion, up 60%, benefiting from laptop and smartphone replacement cycles.

Sharing a similar view, MB Securities (MBS) noted that in the first two months of the year, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 7.9% year-on-year from a low base, with retail goods revenue rising by 7.8%. Overall consumer demand remains relatively slow, while prices of essential goods have increased due to rising input costs such as transportation and production costs.

MBS estimated that PNJ will achieve after-tax profit of VND1.32 trillion ($50.12 million), up 95% year-on-year; DGW VND150 billion ($5.7 million), up 42%; FRT VND219 billion, up 30%; MWG’s retail segment VND1.95 trillion, up 26%; and MSN VND1.15 trillion, up 192%.

According to MBS, within the essential consumer goods segment, the dairy industry is recovering well from a low base, supported by tighter control over illicit milk supply and stabilized distribution systems among major companies. Its gross profit margins remain high thanks to stable raw material prices, leading to expectations of a double-digit net profit growth in Q1/2026.

In the retail segment, essential retail models such as WinCommerce of Masan and Bach Hoa Xanh of Mobile World are benefiting from a shift in transactions from traditional areas and continue to expand rapidly, particularly in the central and northern regions. The total number of stores is estimated to increase by 360, up 10% compared to the end of 2025, with stable net profit growth driven by cost optimization in new areas.

The pharmaceutical retail sector continues to expand in scale, with major chains such as Long Chau, Pharmacity, and An Khang growing in existing areas. Meanwhile, the consumer electronics segment maintains stable scale, with revenue per store increasing by about 20% year-on-year, while overall demand grows at a single-digit rate.