The domestic upstream market is forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 5.57% from 2026 to 2031, while the industrial production index for oil and gas extraction surged 17.21% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, Ho Chi Minh City-headquartered brokerage Kafi said.

The rebound comes after years of declining investment and production. Kafi cited data from Petrovietnam showing that Vietnam’s crude oil output fell to 9.64 million tons in 2025 from 18.7 million tons in 2015, or down 48%. Dry gas production dropped nearly 49% to 5.5 billion cubic meters from 10.67 billion over the period.

New developments including the Block B-O Mon, Lac Da Vang, Su Tu Trang 2B, Khanh My-Dam Doi, and Ca Voi Xanh projects are expected to replenish declining output and generate work across the oil and gas value chain through 2030.

Ca Voi Xanh, however, remains subject to commercial issues before reaching a final investment decision, making the timing of first gas uncertain and potentially pushing production beyond 2030, Kafi said.

Upstream contractors positioned to benefit

Kafi expects the benefits from the new investment cycle to be distributed unevenly across the sector, depending on project schedules and the timing of revenue recognition.

Drilling contractor PetroVietnam Drilling and Well Services, or PVD, is expected to see clear benefits in 2026 from domestic drilling campaigns. Its PV DRILLING I rig is scheduled to drill three wells in the Su Tu field cluster over 249 days, while PV DRILLING VIII is expected to drill six wells at Kinh Ngu Trang over 267 days.

PVD is also leasing Borr Drilling’s THOR and Gunnlod jack-up rigs for drilling campaigns at Block 15-1 and Hai Su Den, adding capacity and supporting service revenue.

Pipeline coating company PVB is expected to execute about VND426 billion ($16.27 million) of contracts related to the Block B-O Mon project in 2026, while potential work from Lac Da Vang, Dai Hung Nam, and Su Tu Trang 2B could provide additional upside.

For oilfield engineering contractor PetroVietnam Technical Services Corp, or PVS, Kafi expects its existing backlog to gradually translate into revenue during 2026-2030, supported by EPCI packages for Block B-O Mon, Lac Da Vang, Su Tu Trang 2B, and Khanh My-Dam Doi.

Gas and refining provide downstream support

In the midstream segment, gas distributor PV Gas and petroleum transport company PVTrans are expected to benefit from growing LNG demand and new domestic gas supplies, Kafi noted.

The commercial operation of the Nhon Trach 3 and 4 LNG-fired power plants in southern Vietnam in early 2026 is expected to create new LNG demand of about 1.2 million tons a year, supporting PV Gas’s LNG imports and distribution through its Thi Vai terminal. The plants are also expected to increase LNG transportation demand for PVTrans.

Further growth could come from the Block B-O Mon project, which is expected to supply about five billion cubic meters of gas annually, as well as new sources including Su Tu Trang 2B and Khanh My-Dam Doi from 2027 onward.

For Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical, or BSR, Kafi sees near-term support from resilient domestic fuel demand, stable operations at Vietnam's first oil refinery Dung Quat, following its major turnaround and relatively strong refining margins. The planned expansion of Dung Quat’s capacity to about 7.6 million tons a year could provide an additional source of long-term growth, Kafi remarked.

Overall, the research firm expects Vietnam’s oil and gas investment cycle to increasingly shift from maintaining mature assets toward developing new fields and infrastructure, creating a multi-year pipeline of opportunities for drilling, engineering, pipeline, gas and refining companies.