Live hog prices rebound

Despite facing simultaneous impacts from epidemics, natural disasters, and adverse market fluctuations in 2025, particularly U.S. tariff policies, Vietnam’s livestock and animal health sector maintained its recovery momentum and achieved positive growth, according to the department of livestock production and animal health under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

Production remained stable, while the industry structure continued shifting toward modernization, biosecurity, and sustainability. Food supply for the domestic market, especially for Lunar New Year (Tet) 2026, has been adequately secured, it added.

This confidence has been further reinforced by the sharp rebound in live hog prices, which rose from around VND50,000 ($1.93) per kilogram to VND80,000 by the end of January and are currently hovering around VND77,000.

The strong price increase was driven by rising demand ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, combined with supply disruptions caused by African Swine Fever outbreaks in multiple regions and severe flooding in northern and central Vietnam late last year, which negatively affected total herd size.

This trend had been forecast earlier in the year by Pham Kim Dang, deputy director of the department, during a press meeting held by the ministry. According to him, in 2025, average monthly meat production and consumption were estimated at 350,000-450,000 tons, with meat demand growing 5-10%. Prices of livestock products were expected to remain generally stable; in particular, live hog prices were projected to fluctuate around VND70,000 ($2.7) per kilogram without any supply shortages.

According to an industry outlook report by Vietcombank Securities (VCBS), household-scale livestock farming is expected to continue shrinking, accounting for only about 25% of the total industry structure by 2030. This trend is driven by the Livestock Law, which officially took effect in 2025 and imposes stricter requirements on farming facilities, making compliance difficult for most smallholder farmers. In addition, unresolved disease risks have led to higher costs related to livestock culling.

Many experts believe the new Livestock Law will serve as a major catalyst for large-scale enterprises. The relocation of substandard facilities, tighter controls on stocking density, and stricter breeding management will pose challenges for small-scale farmers, thereby creating additional growth opportunities for large livestock corporations.

Significant growth potential

This outlook has been reflected in the recent performance of livestock-related stocks. The majority recorded gains over the past month. MML of Masan MEATLife JSC rose the most at 17.4%, followed by BAF of BAF Vietnam Agriculture JSC with 2.03%, VLC of Vietnam Livestock Corporation with 3.62%, and VSN of Vissan JSC with 2.45%.

Moreover, 2025 also painted a largely positive business picture for companies in the industry. For instance, Masan MeatLife reported full-year revenue of VND9,230 billion ($355.68 milion), up 20.7% year-on-year.

Its pre-tax profit exceeded VND623.7 billion, while after-tax profit reached VND619 billion ($23.85 million), increasing by dozens of times compared with the previous year. Revenue recorded strong double-digit growth across all meat product segments, including pork (15.8%), chicken (28.3%), and processed meat (21.9%). The processed meat segment was driven by value-added innovative products, which contributed 31% of segment revenue, up from 18% in 2024.

Meanwhile, in 2025, Dabaco Vietnam Group JSC (HoSE: DBC) recorded net revenue of approximately VND14,900 billion ($574.18 million), up 10% year-on-year, while after-tax profit exceeded VND1,500 billion ($57.8 million), nearly doubling from the previous year. Compared with the targets approved at the AGM, Dabaco exceeded its full-year net profit target by 36%.

BAF Vietnam Agriculture JSC reported consolidated net revenue of VND5,045 billion ($199.4 million). Pre-tax profit and after-tax profits reached VND102 billion and VND100 billion ($3.85 million), respectively.

Vietnam Livestock Corporation posted net revenue of VND2,922 billion ($112.56 million), down 6.9% from VND3,137 billion in 2024. Its pre-tax profit declined 25.7% year-on-year to VND105.1 billion ($4.05 million), compared to VND141.5 billion the previous year. After-tax profit in 2025 reached VND82.1 billion, down 26.1% from VND111.1 billion in 2024. As a result, the firm achieved 88% and 91% of its respective revenue and profit targets for the year.

According to MBBank Securities (MBS), the hog farming market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% during 2026-2030. With the Livestock Law 2025 coming into force, farms and household livestock operations are required to relocate away from densely populated areas, while clear regulations on stocking and livestock density will be enforced over the long term.

As a result, modern, professionally managed livestock enterprises are expected to be the primary beneficiaries as they have already established integrated farming systems and livestock zones that meet regulatory density requirements from the outset, it said.