Policy moves and market impact

Over the past several years, the Philippines has consistently accounted for more than 40%—at times approaching 45%—of Vietnam’s total rice export volume and value. Despite recent developments, Vietnamese rice remains a cornerstone of the Philippines import market, with 2025 projections estimating imports at approximately 4.35 million tons.

However, recent policy moves by the Philippines government are creating ripples that could affect this long-standing trade relationship.

According to Phung Van Thanh, Trade Counselor at the Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines, the Philippines government has taken decisive steps to rein in soaring rice prices. On January 20, 2025, the country’s Secretary of Agriculture proposed—and received government approval—to enforce a Maximum Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) policy, capping retail rice prices at 58 pesos per kilogram. However, this directive-style policy has had limited success in reducing actual market prices.

The Vietnamese Trade Office in the Philippines forecasts that the country's rice import demand will remain high. (Photo: moit.gov.vn)

By February 2025, in response to persistently high rice prices and a recommendation from the National Price Coordinating Council (NPCC), the Department of Agriculture declared a state of emergency concerning national food security, specifically targeting rice.

This declaration empowered the National Food Authority (NFA) to intervene in the retail market by releasing subsidized rice from national reserves in an effort to stabilize supply and pricing. Meanwhile, government agencies launched investigations into retail price surges, with a particular focus on potential collusion or market manipulation by major importers and traders.

While these policy shifts are designed to protect consumers, they may create uncertainty for Philippines rice importers and dampen profit margins, potentially impacting Vietnam’s rice exports to the market.

Safeguarding Vietnam’s export position

Despite short-term policy turbulence, the Philippines’ rice import demand in 2025 and beyond is expected to remain robust. That said, there is a possibility the country will diversify its supply sources to reduce reliance on Vietnamese rice.

To maintain market share, The Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines advises Vietnamese rice exporters to not only seek new opportunities in emerging markets, but also strengthen their presence in the Philippines. The Trade Office also recommends exporters to continue coordinating with the Ministry of Industry and Trade to launch promotional campaigns and marketing efforts aimed at reinforcing the brand and quality of Vietnamese rice.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines believes sustaining stable supply, improving product quality, and enhancing brand value remain key to boosting Vietnam’s export earnings.

“We must diversify our rice product portfolio,” said Counselor Thanh. “Exporters should avoid over-reliance on premium-grade rice catering to high-income consumers and instead tap into the potential of medium- and lower-grade varieties that can serve the broader market, including middle- and low-income populations.”