Former CIEM’s Head Dr Nguyen Dinh Cung

Commenting on the estimated statistics that this year’s GDP can be higher than expected, former Head Nguyen Dinh Cung of the Central Institute for Economic Management said that this is indeed a positive sign. The export market is relatively robust, with orders returning to businesses. The number of new business registrations in recent months has shown signs of recovery.

However, delving deeper into the fundamental data reveals a different picture, not devoid of concerning elements. For instance, regarding domestic investment, the total supplementary registered capital injected into the economy during the first 11 months of 2024 was nearly VND2,912 trillion (US$113.9 billion), representing a 7.5-percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023.

Also, during these 11 months of 2024, excluding inflationary factors, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue only increased by 5.8 percent as opposed to 7 percent this time last year. Naturally, domestic consumption may surge in the final month of the year – a period marked by significant holidays – but the decline in new investment suggests that achieving growth targets in the coming year will be challenging.

He then stressed that even though foreign direct investment (FDI) remains quite positive, these past 11 months have not witnessed many new large-scale projects. In other words, economic growth is not yet truly sustainable. However, it is not advisable to merely rely too heavily on the foreign economic sector.

Talking about the economic picture of Vietnam next year, the former Head shared that recently, the misconduct of various individuals and organizations in economic management and operation has left considerable ‘wounds’ on the administrative apparatus, eroding public and business confidence.

The positive signal is that leadership has demonstrated a dramatic shift in mindset, but this needs to be followed by new legislative frameworks, because it is impossible to run new management software on an old operating system, which creates inconsistencies and lacks synchronization, making it difficult for businesses.

2025 is a year marked by several important anniversaries and serves as the term’s concluding year, preparing for the Party’s 14th National Congress, scheduled for the first quarter of 2026. Fulfilling both political objectives and growth targets will undoubtedly require extraordinary efforts, not to mention the intense global dynamics that will impact Vietnam.

Elaborating more on the matter of ‘dramatic shift in mindset’ he had mentioned earlier, former Head Nguyen Dinh Cung explained that the draft document for the Party’s 14th National Congress clearly demonstrates a forthright assessment of reality, acknowledging that institutional frameworks constitute the ‘bottleneck of several bottlenecks’.

The choice to focus on the most essential yet challenging and sensitive aspects – streamlining the apparatus and legislating based on the principle of ‘right role, right task’ – shows the Party and State leadership, headed by General Secretary To Lam, demonstrating strong determination for substantial change in the near future.

He then discussed in more details particular solutions for this streamlining, including three principles to observe. Firstly, regulations that default to prohibition when proper management seems challenging must be decisively abandoned. Secondly, legislation should not merely focus on management and supervision but should aim to encourage and promote development, creating the most favorable and transparent business environment possible. Finally, law enforcement should not be process-oriented but rather goal-oriented.

It is essential to choose the most effective approach to design and implement laws. This necessitates increased decentralization to local authorities – let them decide, execute, and bear responsibility. It is better, according to him, to pause the introduction of new laws to focus on reviewing and evaluating the existing system, leveraging the intelligence and experience of independent experts to ensure objectivity and minimize the risk of embedded special interests.

Answering the inquiry about particular attention to successfully implement these ‘challenging and sensitive’ tasks, the former Head shared that in the strategy formulation process, it is necessary to better utilize the role of research institutions and policy criticism. Additionally, during reorganization, the apparatus must not become stagnant, affecting citizens’ rights and interests or missing business opportunities.

The Government needs to take more practical actions to regain private sector confidence and create an environment where talented individuals are motivated to work and contribute. Administrative streamlining should prioritize the bureaucratic apparatus; public service units operating normally can be addressed later.

In short, tremendous opportunities can be recognized in promoting reform and removing institutional bottlenecks. Never before have leaders demonstrated such strong determination in reforming the state apparatus to drive more robust national development. Perhaps 2025 will be challenging, but rewarding. It is also time to thoroughly prepare the conditions for Vietnam our country to flourish in the new era.