Vietnam’s total merchandise trade reached $888.02 billion in the nine-month period, with exports rising 24.5% year-on-year to $434.3 billion and imports increasing 36.7% to $453.72 billion. The country therefore posted a merchandise trade deficit of $19.42 billion, according to the National Statistics Office.

The agriculture, forestry and fishery sector moved in the opposite direction. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, the sector's exports rose 7.8% year-on-year to $56.3 billion in the nine months, while imports increased 8% to $39.4 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $16.9 billion, up 7.4%.

The surplus has continued to widen compared with previous years. The sector recorded a surplus of $13.86 billion in the first nine months of 2024, rising to $15.93 billion in the same period of 2025 before reaching $16.9 billion this year. The surplus has therefore increased by more than $3 billion in just two years.

Trade surplus expands for three consecutive years

A breakdown of the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector's trade balance in January-September shows exports of $56.3 billion, including $29.28 billion in agricultural products, $9.17 billion in seafood and nearly $14.41 billion in forestry products.

Several categories posted solid growth, with seafood exports rising 12.3%, forestry products increasing 7.6% and livestock products climbing 24.6%.

On the import side, the sector’s total bill rose 8% to $39.4 billion. Agricultural imports increased 11.3%, livestock products rose 21.4% and forestry products grew 17%.

This indicates that the sector's trade surplus was not driven by a sharp reduction in import demand. Imports of many inputs used in production continued to rise, although some other input categories declined.

The overall surplus of $16.9 billion also masks significant differences among subsectors. Forestry products generated the largest surplus, at $11.59 billion, followed by seafood at $6.73 billion. By contrast, the agricultural products surplus fell 27.7% to $4.32 billion, while livestock products recorded a trade deficit of about $3.43 billion, up 20.9%.

Experts say this divergence is important when assessing the sector’s potential for further growth. Where a sector has already generated a substantial surplus but certain subsectors remain in deficit, future gains need not come solely from increasing export volumes. They could also come from narrowing gaps within the sector, with livestock production providing one example.

Untapped potential lies in value not retained domestically

An analysis of published data shows that a large trade surplus does not necessarily mean that the full value generated across the production chain is retained domestically.

Coffee provides one example. In the first nine months of 2026, export volumes rose 15.4%, but export value fell 7.3% to $6.54 billion as average export prices declined 19.7%. Rice export value also fell 10.9%.

These movements were clearly influenced by global prices. However, export earnings also depend on processing capacity, product development, market access and the position domestic companies occupy within supply chains.

In the wood industry, Nguyen Quoc Khanh, chairman of the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association (VIFOREST), said the sector’s main advantage remained its manufacturing capacity, while its ability to design products independently, develop new offerings, and build its own brands had yet to match that strength.

In the coffee industry, Thai Nhu Hiep, vice chairman of the Vietnam Coffee-Cocoa Association (VICOFA), acknowledged that cooperation among businesses remained limited, with supply chains spanning raw material production, processing, distribution and branding still fragmented.

These assessments point to another gap behind the trade surplus figures: production capacity does not always go hand in hand with the ability to generate value.

Fruit and vegetable exports offer another example. Exports reached $7.35 billion in the first nine months, up 19.9% year-on-year. However, China accounted for 24.4% of Vietnam’s total exports of major agriculture, forestry and fishery products, while the Chinese market alone represented about 63% of the country’s fruit and vegetable exports.

Concentration in a single market can help sustain export volumes when demand is favorable, but it also highlights the need to diversify markets and maintain market share when standards, trade policies or purchasing power change.

At a recent meeting with agriculture, forestry and fishery industry associations and businesses, Vo Van Hung, Deputy Minister of agriculture and environment, stressed the need to shift from simply “opening markets” to ensuring that businesses can “open, enter and retain markets”, while diversifying export destinations and removing trade barriers.

Experts say the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector’s growth potential lies not only in how many additional billions of dollars it can export, but also in how much value it can generate from each unit of raw material, how many stages of the supply chain Vietnamese businesses can control, and how far export markets can be diversified.

The $16.9 billion trade surplus in the first nine months of this year, following surpluses of $13.86 billion in 2024 and $15.93 billion in 2025, demonstrates the sector’s sustained capacity to generate a substantial trade surplus. Yet its composition also reveals persistent gaps: among subsectors, between exports and imports of production inputs, between manufacturing capacity and value capture, and between market size and diversification.

These gaps point to a broader way of looking at the agricultural sector’s growth potential: not simply producing more to export more, but generating and retaining greater value from the resources and capabilities it already has.