The 2025 earnings season closed on a strong note, with Q4 results showing robust growth.

Statistics indicated that after-tax profit attributable to parent company shareholders of firms listed on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HoSE) rose 44.7% year-on-year in Q4/2025, driven by banks and real estate, with spillover effects into oil and gas, financial services, retail, and materials. For the full year, the figure increased 28.1% compared to 2024.

For 2026, the National Assembly, the country's legislature, has set an economic growth target of at least 10%, with GDP per capita projected at $5,400-5,500. The government will continue prioritizing growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major economic balances, with flexible and targeted monetary and fiscal policies.

These conditions are expected to support further corporate expansion, particularly in retail.

Retailers set ambitious profit targets

FPT Retail (HoSE: FRT) has approved its 2026 business plan, targeting consolidated revenue of VND59.5 trillion ($2.29 billion) and pre-tax profit of VND1.55 trillion ($59.68 million), up 16% and 27%, respectively, from 2025.

In 2025, FPT Retail achieved a record pre-tax profit of VND1.22 trillion, largely driven by its Long Chau pharmacy chain, while FPT Shop returned to profitability.

In 2026, Long Chau is expected to remain the key growth driver. Last year alone, the chain added 474 pharmacies and 97 vaccination centers, bringing its network to 2,640 locations.

Analysts forecast around 340 new pharmacy openings this year as demand shifts toward quality and certified products amid stricter anti-counterfeit regulations.

Meanwhile, retail giant Mobile World Investment Corporation (HoSE: MWG) targets 18% revenue growth to VND185 trillion ($7.12 billion) and a 30% rise in after-tax profit to VND9.2 trillion ($354.26 million) - both record highs if achieved.

Its electronics retail chains such as The Gioi Di Dong, Dien May Xanh, TopZone, Erablue, and Tho Dien May Xanh are expected to contribute 65% of revenue and over 80% of profit, while Bach Hoa Xanh grocery stores may add about 30% and nearly 20% respectively, with plans to open roughly 1,000 additional stores.

Financial and real estate firms eye strong gains

In securities, VPBank Securities (HoSE: VPX) projects 59% revenue growth to VND11.07 trillion ($426.3 million) and a 44% increase in pre-tax profit to VND6.45 trillion ($248.36 million), supported by market status upgrade prospects and economic momentum.

The company raised over VND12.7 trillion ($489.03 million) in a late-2025 IPO to expand margin lending and investment activities.

Its parent bank, VPBank (HoSE: VPB), targets consolidated pre-tax profit of VND41.32 trillion ($1.59 billion) in 2026, up 35% year-on-year, with strong contributions expected from consumer finance arm FE Credit, VPBankS, and insurer OPES.

In real estate, Taseco Land (HoSE: TAL) aims for breakthrough growth, targeting VND12 trillion ($462.07 million) in revenue (3.2 times 2025) and VND3 trillion ($115.52 million) in after-tax profit (4.9 times higher).

The company plans to simultaneously develop 19 projects, including completing handovers at Dong Van 3 Industrial Park and Duy Tien Urban Area in Q1/2026.

Who will shine?

According to MB Securities (MBS), accelerating manufacturing, strong infrastructure investment, and a recovering property market will continue supporting listed firms’ earnings. However, higher interest rates in 2026 could increase financial costs, favoring companies with net cash positions.

MBS forecasts overall listed-company profit growth of 17.3% this year. Building materials could see 35% growth, supported by steel giant Hoa Phat Group as its Dung Quat 2 plant in the central province of Quang Ngai becomes operational, while banks may post 21% profit growth, led by major lenders such as Vietcombank, VietinBank, and BIDV. Retail profits are projected to grow 19.5% on recovering consumer demand.

Conversely, sectors such as financial services, oil and gas, transportation, exports, and industrial real estate may record slower growth compared to 2025, as higher borrowing costs weigh on capital-intensive industries like real estate, energy, and construction.