Loading rice for export. (Source: VNA)

Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Food Association and CEO of Intimex Group, said that 2024 will be another record-breaking year for rice exports, with the total to exceed 8 million tonnes and a value of over 5 billion USD, the highest ever. Furthermore, the average export price could also reach a record, potentially topping 600 USD per tonne. This has helped keep rice prices within the domestic market high and stable.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam’s rice exports for the first 10 months of 2024 totalled nearly 7.8 million tonnes, valued at 4.86 billion USD, representing a 10.2% increase in volume and a 23.4% rise in value compared to the same period in 2023. The average price during this period was over 626 USD per tonne, marking a 12% increase year-on-year.

The Philippines, with a strong demand, remains Vietnam's largest export market, accounting for over 45% of the total exports. By the end of October 2024, it had imported 2.91 million tonnes from Vietnam, representing more than 79% of its total rice imports of 3.68 million tonnes. Other key markets include Indonesia and Malaysia, with Malaysia experiencing the strongest growth in value among Vietnam's top 15 export destinations, seeing a 2.3-fold increase.

The Vietnam Trade Office in the Philippines anticipates that rice imports will continue to rise in the final months of 2024, driven by increasing domestic consumption and damage to the harvest caused by natural disasters. It is projected that the total volume of the grain imported by the Philippines in 2024 could exceed 4 million tonnes.

Although rice export prices in Vietnam have fluctuated recently, Nam said he believes that domestic prices could increase towards the end of the year due to limited supply and the impact of storms and floods. He noted that the Philippines, Vietnam's major importer, prefers fragrant rice which keeps a high demand despite increased global supply from India.

In a significant development, Vietnamese companies recently secured 83,500 tonnes of rice in a tender for 500,000 tonnes held by Indonesia in October. Despite the influx of Indian rice, Indonesian buyers were willing to pay more for Vietnamese due to its superior quality.

Nam said that Vietnamese companies have secured substantial orders for the rest of the year, which will help stabilise rice prices.

While India has resumed exporting rice, Nam does not foresee significant impact on prices for Vietnamese, as the Indian grain is generally of lower quality and primarily exported to Africa. In contrast, Vietnamese farmers have shifted to cultivating higher-quality rice varieties.

Vietnam’s agriculture sector is optimistic about the future, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development projecting that this year’s rice production may reach 43 million tonnes, ensuring a steady supply for both domestic consumption and export.