Global tensions intensified late last week after the United States and Israel launched attacks against Iran, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several senior officials, according to state media. Iran swiftly retaliated, firing missiles and drones at Israeli targets and U.S. bases in the Middle East. The situation remains volatile.

Vietnam’s stock market opened sharply lower on Monday, with the VN-Index plunging more than 70 points at the opening order (ATO) as many stocks hit their daily limit-down levels. However, strong inflows later in the session helped the benchmark narrow losses, briefly turning positive toward the end of the morning trade.

By the midday break, the VN-Index stood at 1,877.18 points, down 3.15 points. Trading volume on the HoSE reached more than 886 million shares, worth nearly VND26.64 trillion ($1.02 billion).

Gains were led by sectors seen as direct beneficiaries of rising geopolitical risks and commodity prices, including oil and gas, energy, chemicals, mining and transportation.

Several oil and gas stocks such as BSR, GAS, PVD, PVC and OIL rose to their daily ceiling early in the session. Fertiliser and chemical names including DPM, DCM, BFC, DGC and LAS jumped between 6% and 8%. Power producers POW, NT2 and PGV also advanced, while mining stocks KSV, MSR and BKC gained 7-8%.

In logistics and port services, HAH hit the upper limit, GMD climbed more than 4%, and VSC briefly touched its ceiling.

Losses in most other sectors narrowed to around 2-3%. Some brokerage stocks, including VCI and VPX, moved above their reference prices, while banking stocks mostly declined, with the exception of STB, which surged as much as 5% and at one point hit the daily limit.

Where are the opportunities?

Tran Hoang Son, head of market strategy at broker VPBankS, said the conflict could trigger short-term selling pressure and heightened volatility in the Vietnamese market, particularly if oil prices rise more sharply than expected or if the conflict spreads.

He noted that the VN-Index is hovering near its historical peak of around 1,900-1,920 points, making a technical pullback likely toward the 1,850-1,870 range, or even 1,800-1,830 if selling pressure broadens or foreign investors step up net selling.

However, Son said any decline is likely to be limited and short-lived, with the market expected to recover quickly if the conflict does not drag on or significantly disrupt global oil supply. Vietnam has limited direct exposure to Iranian oil, with market reactions driven mainly by sentiment and foreign capital flows.

If oil prices stabilize following responses from OPEC, the VN-Index could resume its upward trend. In that scenario, opportunities would remain in oil and gas and energy stocks, which typically benefit most directly from higher oil prices (GAS, BSR, PVS, PVD, PVC, OIL, PLX...), as well as fertiliser and chemical companies (DPM, DCM, BFC, CSV...) linked to rising input costs. Port and logistics stocks could also gain if shipping routes shift or freight rates increase (GMD, PVT, HAH...).

Two scenarios for the Iran conflict

Analysts at another broker, MSVN, said the conflict should be viewed within the broader context of global fragmentation, with two emerging blocs: one led by the United States and its Western allies, and another led by China, with Russia, North Korea and Iran at its core.

Energy and rare earths are at the center of the rivalry. While China controls much of the global rare earth supply, it relies on imports for 70-75% of its energy needs, with Iran and Venezuela among key suppliers. Disruptions to these flows could increase U.S. leverage over China’s energy security.

MSVN outlined two main scenarios.

In its base case, if Iran’s retaliation remains contained and regime change unfolds quickly, oil markets may face only a temporary shock. Brent crude could spike 10-15% before easing as supply concerns fade. Early signs suggest limited risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin recovering initial losses and trading largely flat.

In a bearish scenario, escalation leading to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz could push crude prices above $100 a barrel, reigniting inflation pressures and triggering a broad sell-off in risk assets. MSVN sees this scenario as less likely, given China’s heavy reliance on the Hormuz shipping route and its strong interest in avoiding prolonged disruptions.

MSVN expects fertiliser stocks to benefit from potential global supply chain disruptions, as the Middle East is a major hub for urea exports. Prolonged conflict could keep urea and other fertiliser prices such as DAP and MAP elevated, supporting the sector.

Energy stocks could also see short-term gains as concerns over Iranian supply lift Brent prices, while shipping companies with self-operated fleets may benefit from higher fuel surcharges and war-risk premiums, allowing them to pass on costs and capitalize on rising global freight rates.