Speaking at the government’s monthly press briefing, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Sinh Nhat Tan said the military conflict in the Middle East since late February has had far-reaching consequences, particularly for global energy supply chains.

"Authorities assess that the scale and impact of the disruption could exceed past oil shocks in the 1970s, increasing pressure on import-dependent economies," he added.

Domestic supply bolstered by production and imports

Since early March, the government has instructed the Ministry of Industry and Trade to develop response scenarios across two timeframes: short-term (under four weeks) and medium-term (through end-April), reflecting a flexible, adaptive policy approach.

Authorities said fuel market management continues to be guided by five key pillars: ensuring energy security, maintaining supply stability, closely tracking global price movements, assessing impacts on the economy and consumers, and balancing the interests of the state, businesses and the public.

Recent data show domestic supply has strengthened. Oil output rose about 10% in March, while the country’s two main refineries maintained sufficient feedstock to sustain operations through at least the end of April, even extending into May for Dung Quat Oil Refinery.

At the same time, fuel importers stepped up purchases, bringing in around 3.2 million cubic meters in March and lifting domestic inventories to between 2.6 million and 2.8 million cubic meters.

The combination of higher domestic production and increased imports has created a buffer for the market, helping reduce the risk of short-term supply disruptions and giving authorities more room to manage prices and limit spillover effects on the broader economy.

However, longer-term energy security challenges remain, particularly as global markets grow increasingly unpredictable. The ministry said it is implementing structural measures including boosting domestic production capacity, diversifying import sources, promoting alternative fuels such as biofuels, and strengthening strategic reserves and risk management.

It also highlighted the importance of applying data analytics and improving forecasting capacity, noting that timely and accurate responses will be critical in a highly volatile environment.

Overall, maintaining stable supply through April suggests Vietnam has kept its energy market under control in the short term, though long-term energy self-sufficiency and diversification remain strategic priorities.

Fuel prices steady, but upward pressure lingers

Vietnam’s retail fuel prices in March fluctuated within a relatively narrow range, reflecting global oil price movements amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

At the start of the month, prices edged higher following a prior decline, with E5 RON 92 gasoline trading around VND22,000-22,500 ($0.85) per liter and RON 95 at about VND23,000-23,800 ($0.9).

Mid-month, prices rose more sharply as Brent crude climbed above $80 per barrel, pushing domestic retail prices higher. At one point, RON 95 approached VND24,000 per liter, the highest level recorded during the month.

The upward trend later eased as signs of weakening global demand weighed on oil prices. In the final pricing adjustment of March, domestic gasoline prices were trimmed slightly, with RON 95 falling back to around VND23,500-23,800 per liter.

For the month as a whole, prices remained relatively elevated compared to early in the year, but volatility was contained within a band of roughly VND1,000-1,500 per liter, significantly lower than during previous periods of sharp fluctuations.

Key drivers included global crude oil price movements, geopolitical tensions, policy actions by major producers, and exchange rate pressures as the U.S. dollar remained strong, raising import costs. Domestically, the use of the fuel price stabilization fund continued to play a key role in smoothing price adjustments.

In the near term, fuel price trends are expected to remain closely tied to global market developments. Sustained high oil prices would keep upward pressure on domestic prices, while any signs of weakening demand could quickly ease the price environment.