According to securities firm VNDirect, 2026 is the first year of Vietnam’s 2026–2030 Socioeconomic Development Plan and the most ambitious policy cycle in the country’s history. The government has set a GDP growth target of 10 per cent, underpinned by deeper reforms, strong public investment, and a strategic shift towards more sustainable, higher-quality growth as the country works to narrow the development gap with regional peers and move towards upper middle-income status.

This year is viewed as the beginning of a new phase for Vietnam’s economy, with growth increasingly shaped by deeper structural reforms and a strategic reallocation of global capital, supporting a more sustainable expansion.

VNDirect forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth under the base-case scenario at 8.8 per cent. Growth is expected to be driven by a continued expansionary fiscal stance; the potential crowd-in of private investment through institutional reforms; resilient foreign direct investment disbursement; and an improving domestic consumption outlook supported by positive growth momentum and adjustments in tax and wage policies across both the public and private sectors. Meanwhile, external trade activity is expected to slow under persistent tariff-related pressures.

Traditional growth engines remain relevant in 2026, while structural forces increasingly shape Vietnam’s medium-term trajectory. Specifically, institutional reforms unlock new growth capacity and position the private sector to play a more central role in economic expansion.

Public investment and infrastructure development is set to form the backbone for logistics and industrial upgrading over the next decade. Meanwhile, domestic consumption stands to benefit from rising disposable incomes and a more flexible tax policy framework.

High-tech foreign investment is accelerating alongside gradual capital-market liberalisation and the development of an international financial centre. Together, these shifts reinforce Vietnam’s emergence as a regional manufacturing and financial hub. At the same time, a broadly accommodative global monetary environment is expanding the domestic policy space, enabling credit to be channelled into productive sectors, productivity gains, and higher-quality growth.

Vietnam enters 2026 with ample fiscal headroom and retains significant capacity to scale up public investment in support of growth. State budget development expenditure is projected to rise by approximately 29 per cent from the estimated 2025 level, with capital allocation concentrated on large-scale, nationally strategic projects.

Recent legislative approval allowing the government to amend relevant laws and resolutions enhances policy flexibility and execution autonomy, facilitating mechanisms that mobilise private capital into strategic infrastructure and improve the pace and efficiency of public investment. Timely and targeted disbursement–particularly in infrastructure, energy, and logistics–remains critical to sustaining elevated and durable growth.

On the monetary front, the State Bank of Vietnam is expected to maintain stable policy rates in 2026 to preserve support for production and business activity. VNDirect projects credit growth at approximately 19 per cent, with policy guidance favouring manufacturing and innovation-oriented sectors while constraining flows into speculative activities.

At the same time, average deposit rates are expected to rise by approximately 50 basis points, reflecting the combined impact of expansionary fiscal and monetary conditions and mounting liquidity pressures within the banking system.