In a new directive on 2026 credit growth control sent to credit institutions, The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) said it has issued credit growth quotas for individual credit institutions based on their 2024 supervisory ratings.

Banks are required to keep total credit growth within the assigned limits throughout 2026. In addition, credit expansion in the first three months of the year must not exceed 25% of each lender’s full-year quota.

The central bank said it will closely monitor overall credit growth as well as property lending at individual banks during 2026, and may cut credit quotas for institutions that fail to comply.

The SBV also urged banks to strengthen their credit appraisal and risk assessment capabilities, enhance internal controls over lending activities and ensure compliance with legal requirements. Violations of regulations or internal rules in credit extension must be detected promptly and dealt with strictly, it said.

Targeted control, not across-the-board tightening

In 2026, the SBV said it will continue to closely track economic developments and manage credit growth in a proactive and flexible manner, with the aim of supporting banks in supplying capital to the economy while safeguarding financial system stability, maintaining macroeconomic stability, and keeping inflation under control.

Based on assessments of macroeconomic conditions, inflation, and credit growth at individual lenders, the SBV said it may adjust credit growth targets upward or downward as needed. Banks will not be required to submit formal requests for quota adjustments, it added.

The approach of linking property credit growth to each bank’s overall lending expansion signals that the SBV is not pursuing blanket tightening, but rather seeking to prevent an excessive concentration of capital in higher-risk sectors at a time when real estate loans already account for a large share of total credit at many banks.

Commenting on the SBV’s indicative credit growth target of around 15% for 2026, a source from Standard Chartered Vietnam commented that the figure remains relatively high by historical standards. A 15% expansion on last year’s large credit base should be sufficient to support economic activity and meet the government’s growth objectives, the source said.

The key issue, the source added, is not the headline growth figure but how credit is allocated. Instead of concentrating lending in risk-prone sectors, the 2026 strategy emphasises steady disbursement and prioritization of manufacturing and real estate projects serving genuine end-user demand. More evenly distributed credit growth would help banks better manage non-performing loans and ensure capital flows into activities that generate real economic value.

A notable feature of this year’s policy stance is the SBV’s guidance that roughly 25% of the year's credit growth be allocated to each quarter. While this presents challenges, it also creates opportunities to improve corporate governance.

For highly cyclical industries, particularly those reliant on year-end peak seasons, the guidance requires businesses to develop more detailed and disciplined business plans from the start of the year.

With clearer financial roadmaps, companies can better align their operations with regulatory oversight, reducing the risk of funding shortages or disruptions as credit limits tighten toward year-end.

Overall, the SBV’s credit policy orientation for 2026 underscores a growing emphasis on capital efficiency and financial discipline, rather than a sole focus on headline credit quotas. This raises the bar for risk governance and financial planning capabilities at both banks and borrowing firms.

Vietnam’s central bank targets credit growth of around 15% this year, lower than both its target of 16% and the actual expansion of 19.1% recorded last year.

Outstanding loans in 2025 hit VND18,580 trillion ($707.14 billion). Credit growth outpaced deposit mobilization, at times putting significant pressure on system liquidity, particularly ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday (starting February 14, 2026).