The plan, passed last Friday, identifies the period as a turning point for Vietnam to accelerate its rise toward becoming a developing nation with modern industry and upper-middle income, and a place among the world’s 30 largest economies by 2030.

High growth with sustainability

A central priority of the plan is to maintain an average GDP growth rate of 10% or higher, while ensuring macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and maintaining key economic balances.

However, unlike previous phases, the focus is not only on growth speed but also on growth quality. The economy is expected to transition toward a model driven by science-technology, innovation, digital transformation, and improved labor productivity.

In reality, previous periods revealed several limitations, including heavy reliance on capital and the FDI sector, slow productivity growth, underwhelming contributions from total factor productivity (TFP), and a still-developing digital economy and domestic capacity.

These are critical bottlenecks that must be addressed to achieve sustainable double-digit growth.

The global environment is expected to remain complex, with risks related to geopolitics, energy, and supply chains - factors that directly affect inflation, exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability.

In the first quarter of 2026 alone, Vietnam’s average inflation rose by 3.51% year-on-year, approaching the target ceiling of around 4.5%, indicating limited policy space to both stimulate growth and maintain stability.

The business landscape also shows mixed signals. Over 96,000 enterprises entered or re-entered the market in Q1/2026, a strong increase year-on-year. However, a significant number of businesses, mainly small firms, exited the market, highlighting limited resilience.

One of the major highlights of the 2026-2030 period is institutional reform. The plan emphasizes removing legal bottlenecks, shifting from pre-approval to post-audit mechanisms, and strengthening decentralization alongside power control.

The goal is to place Vietnam’s business environment among the top three in ASEAN and the top 30 globally by 2028. Administrative reforms will focus on comprehensive digitalization, reducing compliance costs, and facilitating citizens and businesses.

FDI quality to be enhanced

The economy will be restructured to balance key growth drivers. Of these, investment will focus on strategic infrastructure such as transport, energy, and digital systems. Regarding consumption, the domestic market will be strengthened as a key pillar. On exports, there will be shift toward high value-added and green-standard products.

The private sector will continue to be a major growth engine, with a focus on developing large enterprises capable of regional and global competition. Meanwhile, the FDI sector will be upgraded in quality, shifting from incentive-based attraction to selective investment in high-tech projects with strong spillover effects and linkages to domestic firms.

The 2026-2030 period will see accelerated infrastructure development, with a target of over 5,000 km of expressways by 2030, alongside major projects such as high-speed railways, international transshipment ports, and large-scale airports.

Notably, digital infrastructure and data systems will be treated on par with traditional infrastructure. National databases, large data centers, and digital platforms will form the backbone of the digital economy.

Public-private partnership (PPP) models will continue to expand, especially in technology sectors, with improved risk-sharing mechanisms and increased state participation to attract private investment.

Science, technology, and human resources are identified as decisive factors for growth quality. Policies will aim to remove barriers in scientific research, allow controlled risk-taking, and encourage businesses to invest in core and high technologies.

The education system will also be modernized, integrating digital skills and artificial intelligence into early training and aligning education with labor market demands.

Alongside economic growth, social goals are clearly defined to ensure inclusive and sustainable development. The multi-dimensional poverty rate is set to drop 1-1.5 percentage points per year while average life expectancy at 75.5 years, and health insurance coverage 100%.

A multi-tier social security system will be strengthened to ensure universal access to basic services. However, Vietnam faces the challenge of rapid population aging while income levels remain moderate, placing pressure on healthcare and social insurance systems.

Environmental issues, climate change, energy security, and resource management will remain long-term challenges, requiring a green and sustainable development approach.

Vietnam posted 7.83% GDP growth in Q1/2026 from a year earlier, with the services sector accounting for 50.32% of the economy's total value added, according to the National Statistics Office (GSO).

The economy showed solid momentum in the period, supported by strong performances in industry, construction and services, which together accounted for the largest share of output.

The economy grew 8.02% in 2025, while the parliament approved a GDP target of at least 10% for 2026.