In the latest economic update for Viet Nam Taking Stock which was published on January 13, the international lender said that trade will be a key component of Viet Nam’s climate actions in the years to come. 

Carolyn Turk, World Bank Country Director for Viet Nam assessed that “promoting greener trade would not only help Viet Nam follow through on its pledge to reach net zero emission in 2050 but will also help it keep its competitive edge in international markets and ensure trade remains a critical income and job generator”.

Under title “No time to waste: The Challenges and Opportunities of Cleaner Trade for Viet Nam”, the WB stressed that trade sector should be a priority. Trade, while an important driver of Viet Nam’s remarkable economic growth over the past two decades, is carbon-intensive - accounting for one-third of the country’s total greenhouse gas emissions - and polluting.

The report recommended that the Vietnamese Government act on three fronts: facilitate the trade of green goods and services, incentivize green foreign direct investment, and develop more resilient and carbon-free industrial zones.

Assuming the COVID-19 pandemic will be brought under control at home and abroad, the forecast envisioned that Viet Nam’s services sector will gradually recover as consumer and investor confidence restores, while the manufacturing sector benefits from steady demand from the US, the European Union, and China. The fiscal deficit and debt are expected to remain sustainable, with the debt-to-GDP ratio projected at 58.8%, well below the statutory limit.

The outlook, however, is subject to serious downside risks, particularly the unknown course of the pandemic. Outbreaks of new variants may prompt renewed social distancing measures, dampening economic activity. Weaker-than-expected domestic demand in Viet Nam could weigh on the recovery. In addition, many trading partners are facing dwindling fiscal and monetary space, potentially restricting their ability to further support their economies if the crisis persists, which in turn could slow the global recovery and weaken demand for Vietnamese exports.

WB experts said careful policy responses could mitigate these risks. Fiscal policy measures, including temporary reduction of VAT rates and more spending on health and education, could support aggregate domestic demand. Support for affected businesses and citizens could be more substantial and more narrowly targeted. Social protection programs could be more carefully targeted and efficiently implemented to address the severe and uneven social consequences of the crisis. Heightened risks in the financial sector should be closely monitored and addressed proactively./.