International meteorological organisations forecast that El Niño, expected to occur in late 2026 and early 2027, could cause droughts in India, Thailand, Indonesia and Australia, affecting rice production as well as many other agricultural commodities.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) announced that its Rice Price Index for May 2026 increased by 2.7% compared with the previous month. Viet Nam recorded the sharpest increase in rice prices due to tight supply, while Thai rice prices were supported by concerns over El Niño.

In contrast, rice prices in India and Pakistan came under pressure as import demand weakened. Currently, Viet Nam’s export price for 5% broken rice stands at 412 USD per tonne, up 18 USD per tonne compared with the beginning of May 2026. Meanwhile, the prices of the same grade of rice from Thailand and India are 480 USD per tonne and 350 USD per tonne, respectively.

From May 1 to May 31, 2026, Viet Nam exported 902,228 tonnes of rice, with a total value of 430.235 million USD. Cumulative rice exports as of May 31, 2026 reached more than 4.27 million tonnes, worth 2.01 billion USD, representing an increase of 1.86% in volume but a decrease of 7.38% in value compared with the same period in 2025. The average export price exceeded 470 USD per tonne, down 17.53% year-on-year.

From now until the end of the year, the global rice market is forecast to remain volatile. At the same time, it also presents opportunities for Viet Nam’s rice production and exports, provided that supply is maintained and the recovery in export rice prices is effectively leveraged.