According to a newly-released economic report, UOB stated that Viet Nam's trade surplus in 2024 was estimated to hit US$23.9 billion, the second-highest level in history, only behind the record of US$28.4 billion in 2023.

This also marks the ninth consecutive year that Viet Nam has maintained a trade surplus, playing a crucial role in stabilizing the Dong exchange rate.

With a high level of openness, Viet Nam's economy continues to strengthen its position in the region, with export value in 2024 accounting for approximately 90 percent of GDP—the second highest in ASEAN, only behind Singapore (174 percent) and surpassing Malaysia (69 percent). This highlights the crucial role of trade as a key driver of growth of Viet Nam's economy, the bank noted.

However, this high level of openness also makes Viet Nam more vulnerable to fluctuations and conflicts in global trade, especially as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies measures to reduce the trade deficit.

The financial institution suggested that Viet Nam should boost capital investment, especially from the public sector, not only to drive growth but also to mitigate risks when trade faces challenges.

Viet Nam still has room to strengthen public investment, especially as the government aims for double-digit growth in the future, the bank highlighted.

With these factors, UOB maintains an optimistic yet cautious outlook on Viet Nam's economic prospects. The GDP growth forecast for 2025 remains at 7 percent, assuming first-quarter GDP reaches 7.1 percent. 

In 2026, the growth rate could rise to 7.4 percent, supported by the government's measures to improve efficiency, said the lender./.