It is estimated that Việt Nam exported 964,000 tonnes of coffee in the first seven months of 2024, worth nearly US$3.54 billion, down 13.8 per cent in volume but up 30.9 per cent in value compared to the same period last year.

Turnover to many traditional markets in the second quarter of this year increased year-on-year, except for Italy.

The export turnover of most coffee varieties declined in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter, except for Arabica coffee.

Compared to the second quarter of last year, the export turnover of coffee varieties grew.

A worker harvests coffee in Đắk Lắk. VNA/VNS Photo

In general, the export turnover of coffee varieties surged from two to three digits compared to the same period last year.

The Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Việt Nam Industry and Trade Information Centre forecast that Việt Nam's coffee exports in the remaining months of the third quarter would decrease due to low supply.

Supply will not increase until October, when the 2024-25 coffee harvest begins.

Statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development show that the country's coffee output is estimated at 1.47 million tonnes in the 2023-24 crop year, the lowest level in four years, down 20 per cent compared to the 2022-23 crop year.

Coffee output in the 2024-25 crop year is forecasted to continue to decrease due to unfavourable weather factors.

Without including the inventory carried over from the previous year, Việt Nam will only have about 200,000 tonnes left to export from now until September.

However, the Vietnamese coffee industry will benefit in terms of price.

The Bloomberg reported that global Robusta coffee prices would fluctuate in a strong and prolonged upward trend due to concerns about scarce supply from Việt Nam.

According to the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), the world may face a shortage of Robusta coffee of up to 35 million bags (60kg/bag) by 2040.