Phan Đức Hiếu, member of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly, at the Vietnam Investment Forum on Friday in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo

HCM CITY - Despite global trade challenges, Việt Nam’s economy is expected to maintain positive growth in 2025, speakers said at a meeting on Friday in HCM City.

Speaking at the Vietnam Investment Forum, Phan Đức Hiếu, a member of the Economic Committee of the National Assembly, said Việt Nam had shown resilience, recovering across all sectors in the first 10 months of the year.

Key achievements include robust industrial production, export growth, and significant foreign direct investment (FDI).

Macroeconomic stability had been maintained, with controlled inflation and financial indicators remaining within acceptable limits, he added.

Nguyễn Tú Anh, director of the Centre for Economic Information, Analysis and Forecasting under the Central Economic Commission, said that public investment was essential for economic growth, alongside a resurgence in private investment.

Nguyễn Bá Hùng, chief economist of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in Việt Nam, highlighted the unpredictable global economic situation for 2025.

"While foreign investment remains strong, export growth is reliant on a low performance baseline from the previous year," he said.

With domestic consumption and government spending currently below their targets, he argued that these areas could emerge as new growth drivers in 2025.

Trần Ngọc Báu, general director of financial market research company WiGroup, said Việt Nam’s GDP grew 7.4 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding the government’s 6.7 per cent target.

The nation's GDP growth was expected to surpass the 2024 target of 6.5 per cent, with potential growth reaching 7 per cent this year, he added.

Challenges

Despite a positive outlook, experts have warned that Việt Nam faces significant challenges to its growth this year and next.

Weak external demand from major economies, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and the US presidential election, could hinder exports, manufacturing, and employment.

Risks also include weak domestic demand and unfavourable global conditions. Recent rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank may further impact export performance.

Experts have cautioned that Việt Nam's export growth could suffer if global economic growth falters or geopolitical tensions persist.

Intensifying trade disputes might also diminish exports, vital to the economy.

In addition, concerns exist over ongoing weakness in real estate and corporate bond markets, which could limit bank credit expansion and stall economic growth.

The economy's vulnerability to external shocks is heightened by its reliance on tourism, exports, and foreign direct investment (FDI).

In addition, delays in public investment disbursement pose another internal challenge to growth, according to the experts.

Recommendations

Speakers at the Vietnam Investment Forum on Friday in HCM City. — VNA/VNS Photo

Experts have recommended a coordinated policy approach that emphasises a robust fiscal stimulus, including the acceleration of public investment and the maintenance of low interest rates to boost demand.

Nguyễn Bá Hùng recommended that the central bank adopt a flexible monetary policy to facilitate the nation’s economic recovery.

He proposed a comprehensive strategy for medium-term economic growth that focuses on ensuring macro-financial stability, advancing reforms, and fostering green and inclusive growth.

He also advised taking decisive measures to address vulnerabilities within the real estate and corporate bond markets, which include strengthening the insolvency framework and enhancing transparency.