Ensuring energy security

In March, the consumer price index (CPI) rose sharply under the impact of global fuel prices and increases in construction material costs. The National Statistics Office (NSO) reported that the global energy price shock directly affected domestic retail fuel prices, with petrol prices rising by an average of 29.72% and diesel by 57.03%. Higher fuel prices pushed transport costs up by 12.85%, contributing 1.28 percentage points to overall CPI.

The NSO forecasts that if global oil prices continue to climb amid prolonged Middle East tensions, annual CPI could increase by a further 1–2 percentage points. Calculations show that a 10% rise in domestic fuel prices could lift CPI by around 0.45 percentage points and spill over into many other goods and services.

To ensure adequate fuel supply, the Department of Taxation has instructed local tax authorities to conduct inspections of high-risk petroleum businesses. Any signs of hoarding, speculation, restricted sales for profiteering during price fluctuations, or violations relating to invoicing and price fraud must be dealt with strictly in accordance with regulations.

This urgent directive comes as tax authorities have detected unusual patterns in electronic invoice data for several fuel trading firms in the first quarter.

The Ministry of Finance has also proposed that the Government extend the reduced import tax rates on certain petroleum products until June 30, 2026, instead of April 30 as currently stipulated, and apply preferential import tariffs to selected inputs used in fuel production.

Economic expert Ngo Tri Long noted that this is a necessary response in a market that remains sensitive, with direct impacts on production costs, transport, and people’s livelihoods.

He said extending import tax cuts helps secure supply, ease input cost pressures, and create room to stabilise prices. At the same time, intensified inspections of petrol stations showing signs of hoarding are essential to maintain market discipline and prevent profiteering and speculation that could distort support policies.

Previously, market management authorities and the Ministry of Industry and Trade had repeatedly stressed the need to prevent hoarding and supply disruptions in the fuel market.

Flexible policy management is only effective when accompanied by strict oversight and coordinated action among the finance, taxation, industry and trade, and market surveillance authorities.

Support policies must reach the market effectively, while enforcement must be strong enough to deter those exploiting price volatility for profit.

“The message from the authorities is clear: the State is ready to share difficulties with businesses and citizens, but will not tolerate any abuse of policies that destabilises the market,” Long said.

Supporting production and business

Expressing confidence in Viet Nam’s resilience in overcoming external shocks, Associate Professor Dr Tran Hoang Ngan, a National Assembly member from the Ho Chi Minh City delegation, pointed out that the substantial budget revenue in the first quarter provides fiscal space for the Government to flexibly deploy tools such as tax and fee reductions to stabilise prices and prevent spillover effects on inflation.

In addition, the Government should directly share difficulties with businesses by maximising reductions in state-managed fees, and charges, including taxes, customs fees and transport infrastructure fees, to sustain production and business activity.

Looking ahead, there is a need for coordinated and harmonious management of fiscal and monetary policies in a proactive, flexible, timely, and effective manner. This approach will help maintain macroeconomic stability, keep inflation within target, and at the same time ease difficulties for production and business, support enterprises, and promote growth.

Fiscal policy should continue to be reasonably expansionary and well-targeted, while monetary policy must ensure inflation control, support growth, and safeguard system stability.

In its first-quarter 2026 report to the Prime Minister on the impact of the Middle East conflict on business operations, the Private Sector Development Research Board (Board IV) proposed seven key groups of solutions, focusing on stabilising energy prices, reducing input cost pressures, supporting supply, and promptly implementing credit support measures, debt restructuring, interest rate reductions, and improved cash flow for enterprises.

Survey results from Board IV show that the impact of the Middle East conflict is concentrated in sectors directly linked to transport, import-export activities, fuel, industrial and agricultural production, and global supply chains. Rising input costs are eroding cash flow and profit margins, while investment sentiment, access to capital, and financial conditions are also being affected.

At present, the business community is also expecting more substantive administrative reforms to remove legal bottlenecks and ensure effective implementation, particularly procedures related to tax refunds, imports, and access to finance, so that enterprises can focus resources on production, business activities, and risk management.

With the advantage of macroeconomic stability and proactive institutional reform, Viet Nam is well positioned to attract a new wave of manufacturing relocation amid the restructuring of global supply chains and investment flows. However, to seize these opportunities, businesses must prepare to meet the higher standards required by new orders.