Export turnover in May reached USD 53.08 billion, up 4.5% mom and 25% yoy. This growth was driven by several items with high growth rates, including chemicals (141% yoy), iron & steel (57.4% yoy), and electronic goods, computers & their parts (55.1% yoy). Of which, the export value from the foreign-invested sector amounted to USD 42.8 billion (28% yoy), accounting for 80.6% of the total export turnover in the month. Alongside this, the domestic economic sector recorded positive growth for the third consecutive month, up 14% yoy, with an export value of USD 10.3 bn, accounting for 19.4% of the total turnover.

Cumulatively, in 7M26, export turnover reached USD 319.53 bn (21.7% yoy), with notable increases in items such as plastic materials (57.5% yoy), chemicals (52.7% yoy), and electronics & computers (50.1% yoy). On the other hand, some commodities experienced sharp declines, including coffee (-11.2% yoy), rice (-7.1% yoy), and rubber (-4.6% yoy). In terms of export markets, the U.S. remained Vietnam's largest export market, with an estimated turnover of USD 104.7 billion (23% yoy). Meanwhile, export turnover to China reached USD 45.6 billion, up 30.7% yoy, significantly higher than the 7.1% increase recorded in the same period last year. In addition, exports to the EU rose 18% yoy to USD 38bn.

On the import side, merchandise import turnover is estimated at USD 53.43bn (45.2% yoy) in June, bringing cumulative 1H26 imports to USD 283.17bn (33.4% yoy). Several categories recorded strong growth, notably petroleum-derived products (83.8% yoy), petroleum (73.5% yoy), and electronics & computers (62% yoy). The sharp rise in fuel-related imports was driven by elevated global energy prices and, in part, by increased inventory stockpiling among oil and gas enterprises.

In addition, the computer, electronics, and machinery group rose sharply amid the expansion of technology projects by major corporations such as Samsung, LG, Intel, etc. In terms of markets, China remained Vietnam's largest import partner (accounting for 40.7% of total imports), with an estimated turnover of USD 115.2 billion (36% yoy). Notably, imports from South Korea posted impressive growth of 49% yoy (versus 5.5% in the same period last year). Imports from the U.S. also grew strongly, up 26.7% yoy to USD 11.2bn.

As a result, the merchandise trade balance recorded a deficit for the seventh consecutive month, amounting to USD 2.64 bn in June—yet, this had narrowed by 49% from the prior month's deficit. Cumulatively, in 1H26, the trade balance posted a deficit of USD 16.65 billion, against a surplus of USD 7.95 billion in the same period last year.

From July 24, the US officially imposed a 12.5% tariff on Vietnamese goods under Section 301 related to forced labor, replacing the temporary 10% global tariff imposed under Section 122. However, in MBS’s views, the impact on Vietnam’s export growth outlook is expected to remain relatively limited, as major competitors such as China, Thailand, and India are subject to the same tariff rate. In addition, most of Vietnam’s key exports to the US, including electronics & machinery, remain exempt from the tariffs.

Against this backdrop, MBS expects exports to maintain double-digit growth through the end of the year, supported by: (1) According to the WTO & World Bank, global trade growth this year is expected to continue benefiting from strong investment demand related to AI; and (2) Vietnam is continuing to diversify its export markets, particularly toward the EU and South Korea, while pursuing negotiations on FTAs with new markets.

Nevertheless, downside risks to export activity remain, as global demand could weaken amid rising global inflationary pressures stemming from persistently elevated energy prices. In addition, the risk of further US tariffs remains, as Vietnam is still subject to two other Section 301 investigations concerning intellectual property rights and structural overcapacity. Taking these factors into account, MBS estimates export growth to range between 17.5% and 19.8% in 2026.

On the import side, import growth is expected to moderate toward the end of the year, as raw materials imported during the first few months of the year are gradually transformed into finished goods during the peak production and export season in the final months. That said, MBS said, import growth would be likely to remain elevated in 2026, driven by several factors:

First, higher transportation costs amid elevated oil prices are likely to push up overall goods prices. Average Brent crude prices are forecast to range between USD 75 and 85 per barrel this year, compared with USD 68.7 per barrel in 2025.

Second, Vietnam is likely to continue increasing imports from the US in an effort to narrow its trade surplus with the US.

Third, demand for machinery, equipment, and technological production lines is expected to remain strong to support manufacturing expansion & infrastructure investment. Accordingly, MBS expects imports to increase by 24 - 26.6% in 2026, resulting in an estimated trade deficit of USD 5 - 7 billion for the year.