Illustrative image (Photo: AFP/VNA)

Bangkok - Thailand's National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) reckoned that the Thai economy can be affected by three scenarios taking into account the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and other geopolitical conflicts.

NESDC Deputy Secretary General Wichayayuth Boonchit said the first and most probable scenario is that if the Russia-Ukraine war continues but the global oil supply is not affected by sanctions against Russia, Thailand’s economy should expand between 2.5 and 3.5% this year.

In the second but less probable scenario, he said the Thai economy will grow less than expected in 2022-2023 if more sanctions are slapped on Russia. This will result in a surge in the global price of oil and other products.

The third and worst scenario is that if a conflict is sparked between the US and China. Wichayayuth said this conflict will spark a global economic recession depending on the intensity of this and other geopolitical conflicts.

Meanwhile, the Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking predicted that the Thai economy will grow by 2.75 – 3.5% this year on the back of rising exports, tourist arrivals and Government support.