This is the comment of economist, PhD. Le Duy Binh (photo), Managing Director of Economica Vietnam, in a conversation on the issue of clearing resources for economic growth in 2021.

Exports are considered the main growth engine of the economy in 2021. What is your assessment of the outlook for export next year?

Exports are one of the positive points of 2020. Currently, exports still maintain the growth rate, especially with an export surplus over US$18 billion. This is a huge contribution to maintaining GDP growth of over 2% this year, demonstrating Vietnam's ability to maintain production capacity thanks to the pandemic being controlled and in the context of direct competition with Vietnam in some products, and is still heavily affected by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Regarding exports in 2021, Vietnam's economy still depends heavily on the demand of some major markets such as the US, Japan, South Korea, the EU, China and ASEAN, accounting for nearly 80% of the export turnover of Vietnam.

If the recovery of these markets is as fast and strong as predicted by some international organizations, Vietnam is likely to regain a high export growth rate as in 2019 and previous years and will contribute more positively to GDP growth. But if these markets recover slowly, Vietnam's export growth in the coming years may still achieve positive growth but will not reach as high as expected to contribute to the GDP growth target of 6% in 2021 set by the Government.

However, we have many advantages. First of all, Vietnam's production capacity is being maintained, domestic enterprises continue to be registered and FDI inflows continue to flow into Vietnam. These are the advantages for Vietnam's exports to break through in 2021. When the global market recovers, Vietnam will meet that demand very quickly and recover strongly compared to other countries.

In your opinion, how should the agricultural sector be strengthened in 2021?

- Through the Covid-19 pandemic, the agriculture sector proved to be a good support for the economy, ensuring food security while still providing raw materials for key export commodities. This area still shows its advantages to demonstrate Vietnam's competitiveness. The agricultural sector will become a highly competitive industry in Vietnam due to its geography, soil and agricultural productivity.

However, the development of agricultureis inseparable from the industrial sector. The benefits of agricultural production are mainly in the processing, distribution, and service stage. Therefore, Vietnam's approach will have to change and develop in chains, not pure agricultural development. Only focusing on agricultural production, not associated with market development, with the formation of chains will not create advantages for Vietnam in the long run and not bring the highest added value.

In order for agriculture to really become a solid pillar of the economy, agricultural development must go with the development of supporting industries such as services, logistics, distribution, marketing, processing industry and machines.

What should be done to improve public investment momentum in 2021?

- Public investment disbursement, if compared with previous years, saw many positive changes. One of the most obvious changes is the awareness and commitment in disbursement of public investment, from central to local levels, ministries, sectors, project management boards, and contractors.

Commitments and responsibilities to objects has become clearer and commitments are gradually being strengthened, showing that the awareness of the importance of fully disbursing public investment capital has witnessed a positive change. It is hoped that in 2021, this spirit will continue so that the disbursement of public investment will be accelerated from the first months of 2021, thereby accelerating the progress of the whole year.

Secondly, a series of problems about regulations as well as the way to implement this capital source have been adjusted, from the formulation of investment policies, project construction, allocation of investment capital, to disbursement procedures. This has contributed to solving the difficulties in the process of disbursing public investment capital.

In addition, drastic measures to change investment forms or ways to promote disbursement of public investment capital have been more flexible and innovative than in previous years. Along with strong pressure, it is expected that these changes will continue next year to further increase the disbursement of public investment capital in 2021.

In your opinion, what should be done to help businesses overcome this difficult period for development?

- In 2021, we still have to continue to improve the business investment environment, because although the GDP growth may be higher than some countries in the region, the quality of the business environment is still lowerthan many other countries.

In my opinion, supporting businesses includes three points. First, determine which businesses will be supported and what is the basis of the support. For businesses that are affected and have the ability to recover, we will support, with the goal of ensuring that businesses recover in a certain period of time. Second, the Covid-19 pandemic is like a screening test, we must accept that a series of businesseswill no longer continue the game.

This is also normal because in the market economy, the screening shows that there are a number of businesses and industries that are no longer appropriate, or the competitiveness of enterprises is limited.

Thirdly, it is necessary to stimulate a number of groups of enterprises with potential development, especially those that have the ability to lead to the development of a series of other enterprises, such as innovation enterprises, digital economic enterprises, and agricultural enterprises, high-tech agricultural enterprises, that if investing in them, theycan maintain and will lead to the development of satellite enterprises and businesses in industry clusters, or a whole value chain. This approach will be more relevant for 2021.

Thank you, Sir!

Dr. Vu Tien Loc, Chairman of Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI):

In the direction and administration in the future, the Government should give priority to stability, considering the macro-economic stability as the foundation for all development plans.

To promote high growth while ensuring macroeconomic stability, the solution is to continue institutional reforms to promote business development and unclog investment capital.

We must determine to achieve the goal of bringing Vietnam into the group of three or four economies with the best business environment and competitiveness in ASEAN. The program of reviewing and removing overlapping regulations and inadequacies in the business law system started by the Government should be implemented more urgently and drastically.

In addition, to receive the new wave of FDI investment, we must correctly identify the nature of this investment wave as the shifting wave of supporting industries.

Therefore, the Government should soon develop a Draft on supporting industries to promote this important industry. If supporting industries cannot be developed and gradually rise to higher segments in the supply chains, even if we can attract tens or hundreds of billions of USD in FDI in the future, the economy will not be able to escape the situation of outsourcing, relying on cheap labor and a middle income trap.

Member of the National Assembly Nguyen Ngoc Phuong (QuangBinh), member of the Committee on social issues of the National Assembly:

In order to have a unity, create a breakthrough, and bring the economy to sustainable development in 2021 and the following years, I think that it is necessary to have additional mechanisms and solutions.

Firstly, it is necessary to identify the industrial sector as a breakthrough target in the socio-economic development strategy. In recent years, the agricultural sector has reached its peak. In the future, if you want to be rich and have a high income, industrial production is an important area, we must pay attention to industrial development in the future to make our economy undergo significant changes.

Secondly, it is necessary to drastically supplement the disbursement of public investment capital, the solution of planning and approving investment projects closely, without spreading, preventing and combating loss, waste, corruption and quickly complete projects.

Thirdly, it is necessary to realize the goal of not leaving any province behind. In fact, provinces and cities have opportunities for economic development, there are resolutions and regimes for implementing their own goals, with the opportunity to attract capital, businesses, and the provinces that have faced difficulties are facing even more difficulties in attracting investment, especially FDI.

Member of National Assembly Nguyen Van Chien (Hanoi):

Currently, the socio-economic development plan for 2021 has been drafted with the general goal set to focus on the achievement of the "dual" goal, both prevention and control of the pandemic and protection of human health, both recovering and developing socio-economic in a new normal state.

At the same time, some specific targets were also given, in which GDP growth is about 6-6.5%. Thus, compared with the expected results achieved in 2020, the GDP growth rate in 2021 is set at a high level. However, although the growth rate of 2020 is low, the target of 6-6.5% growth in 2021 is reasonable and fully achievable, because the global economy is gradually recovering.

It needs to improve the business environment, create a driving force to improve the competitiveness of the economy; reviewing, amending and supplementing legal documents, solving problems, difficulties, barriers to policy mechanisms, creating a favorable and equal business investment environment among businesses and people; perfecting the mechanism for private enterprises to have equal access to resources, especially in terms of investment capital and land.

By Huong Diu