Stabilizing exchange rates is very important for macroeconomic stability. Photo: ST

According to a report from the General Statistics Office, in the first quarter of 2024, the USD price index increased by 3.97% over the same period last year.

However, recent exchange rate developments have always tended to increase, with many times reaching peaks. According to the money market report of SSI Securities Company, as of the end of March 2024, the interbank exchange rate was at VND 24,790/USD - equivalent to an increase of 2.15% compared to the end of 2023 and far from the historical peak of about 0.3%. Exchange rates at commercial banks and the free market are fluctuating in the historical peak area, currently around VND 25,200/USD.

According to SSI experts, data on trade balance or disbursed FDI in March were positive, but exchange rate movements were less positive because pressure on the international market was still very strong. Therefore, the State Bank may have to take stronger measures to cool down demand for USD.

Facing with the recent sharp increase in exchange rates, at the regular Government press conference in March 2024 on the afternoon of April 3, Standing Deputy Governor of the State Bank Dao Minh Tu affirmed that the exchange rate is indeed more exciting and exchange rate management in 2023 will have difficulties due to the impact of the world economy, while Vietnam is a highly open economy. By early 2024, the exchange rate will continue to heat up.

Therefore, the representative of the State Bank of Vietnam clearly stated that this is an issue that the State Bank needs to pay attention to and focus on operating.

Explaining the cause of the sharp increase in exchange rates, according to Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu, there are many influencing factors but there are three basic reasons. Firstly, the US Federal Reserve (FED) has not yet given a specific date for loosening monetary policy to lower interest rates, so the value of the USD has increased, thereby affecting other currencies in the region, so it also affects the Vietnamese currency in its relationship with the USD.

Second, Vietnam's recent policy of lowering interest rates has created inadequacies by bringing the interest rate difference between VND and USD in the interbank market to negative levels, creating even more pressure to make the USD hotter.

Third, in the first three months of the year, the import situation was relatively positive, so the demand for foreign currency increased higher than in the previous period.

However, according to the State Bank, the depreciation rate of the USD compared to other currencies in the region is low. The representative of the State Bank of Vietnam informed that according to calculations, in 2023, VND will depreciate by 2.9%, currently on the interbank market, the VND to USD exchange rate is increasing by 2.6%. But the Chinese Yuan lost 1.74%, the Thai Baht lost 5.93%, the Korean Won lost 3.88%, the Japanese Yen lost 7.52%...

However, the Deputy Governor of the State Bank acknowledged that the exchange rate is one of the important indicators in macroeconomic management, because it not only affects the value of money and purchasing power but also many economic policies especially in terms of macroeconomic stability, inflation control, as well as stabilizing market psychology and investor confidence. Therefore, the State Bank always ensures to operate the foreign exchange market cautiously and flexibly, managing the exchange rate up and down in the general trend, ensuring stable purchasing power of the currency, maintaining a harmonious foreign exchange status. currency, ensuring foreign currency balance to meet legal foreign currency needs for businesses and import-export activities...

But Deputy Governor Dao Minh Tu also stated that to achieve the above goals, tools are needed. In addition to monetary policy tools, factors such as communication are also needed to create confidence in the market and avoid holding foreign currency.

“In fact, with the State Bank's foreign exchange reserves, in the last case necessary, it intervenes to ensure stability. Therefore, it is necessary to communicate so that businesses and people understand that the Government and the Prime Minister are always concerned and operate decisively, and that the State Bank is ready to use tools actively to ensure the goal of stabilizing exchange rates during this period. in the future", Deputy Governor of the State Bank Dao Minh Tu said.

Currently, many directions of the Government and the Prime Minister emphasize the task of stabilizing the foreign exchange market, thereby striving to continue to increase state foreign exchange reserves.