Looking back at the 2021-2025 period, Vietnam has navigated an exceptionally challenging phase of the global economic cycle with remarkable resilience.

In a world marked by successive shocks – from the pandemic and geopolitical tensions to supply chain fragmentation and profound structural realignments – Vietnam has not only maintained macroeconomic stability, but has also gradually regained growth momentum and strengthened its regional standing.

Resilience and a strong reform mindset have emerged as critical pillars, reinforcing confidence among both domestic and foreign businesses.

Business confidence rebound: Foundation for new growth cycle

From EuroCham’s perspective, this confidence is clearly reflected in the Business Confidence Index (BCI) for the fourth quarter of 2025, which rose by 13.5 points quarter-on-quarter to reach 80.0 points – its highest level in seven years.

This is more than an impressive headline figure; it signals a clear shift in European business sentiment, from cautious recovery to strategic confidence. Crucially, this optimism is underpinned by tangible developments on the ground: recovering orders and investment plans gradually moving from intention to execution.

The rebound in business confidence is supported by an encouraging macroeconomic backdrop. GDP growth in Q4/2025 reached 8.46%, the strongest quarterly performance since 2007, exceeding many international forecasts and closing the year on a solid growth footing.

Throughout the 2021-2025 period, foreign investment has continued to play a pivotal role – not only as a source of capital, but also as a conduit for technology transfer, management expertise, and deeper integration into global value chains. European investors alone have channeled more than $28 billion into Vietnam, underscoring their long-term confidence in the country’s growth potential.

More importantly, Vietnam is steadily repositioning itself within the global supply chain. Beyond being a cost-competitive manufacturing base, the country is increasingly viewed as a strategic value-chain partner, supported by its favorable geopolitical location, a young and dynamic workforce, and an expanding network of new-generation free trade agreements. This evolution provides a strong foundation for Vietnam to attract not only more foreign investment, but higher-quality, value-added capital flows in the years ahead.

The BCI also highlights clear expectations among European businesses regarding Vietnam’s future trajectory. A striking 88% of respondents express optimism about prospects over the next five to seven years, with 31% reporting that they are “very optimistic.” This reflects a growing belief that Vietnam is entering a phase of structural transformation – one where growth is driven less by scale alone, and increasingly by productivity gains, sustainability, and deeper integration into the global economy.

Institutional reform – a prerequisite in the race for high-quality FDI

At the same time, realizing this potential will require continued and decisive reform. Administrative procedures and the legal framework remain the most significant bottlenecks for businesses, despite visible progress.

In Q4/2025, 53% of BCI respondents still cited administrative burdens as a key concern, although this represents a notable improvement of 12 percentage points compared to the previous quarter. In an increasingly competitive global environment for high-quality FDI, factors such as transparency, policy predictability, digital readiness, and climate resilience will be decisive.

Looking ahead to the next five years, Vietnam will continue solidifying itself as a dynamic manufacturing and investment hub. At the current rate, the country is forecast to become the third-largest economy in ASEAN within 2026, which can be a major boost to the national brand. Achieving this ambition will require a development strategy anchored in three core pillars: consistent institutional reform; sustained investment in infrastructure and human capital; and dual transformation as long-term foundations.

With the right policy direction and close public–private collaboration, Vietnam has all the necessary conditions not only to sustain growth, but to meaningfully elevate the quality of that growth in its next development phase.

I believe the next five years will be a decisive period for Vietnam's development trajectory. If the recent period has been a test of resilience and adaptability, the road ahead will be a test of growth quality. To build an economy that can go far and grow sustainably, the most important thing is still the foundation. A transparent, stable, and consistent legal framework is that foundation – strong enough for investors to confidently lay long-term “bricks,” clear enough for businesses to dare to expand, innovate, and accept calculated risks.

In the context of increasingly fierce competition to attract high-quality FDI, this is no longer an added advantage, but a prerequisite. If done well, Vietnam can absolutely attract more European capital flows into high value-added sectors such as technology, renewable energy, green manufacturing, and modern services.

I remain optimistic about the continued maturation of Vietnam’s business community over the next five years. As global supply chains undergo further restructuring, new opportunities will emerge for companies with the capabilities and strategic vision to compete.

To participate in higher segments of the value chain in a more proactive way, however, businesses must be supported by an enabling ecosystem - one that includes clear and predictable policies, modern infrastructure, a skilled workforce, and stronger linkages with international partners.

When foreign-invested enterprises and Vietnamese firms truly collaborate – across production, innovation, and the dual transition – Vietnam can evolve from being primarily a manufacturing location to becoming a center of value creation. At that point, progress will be measured not only by headline GDP growth, but also by the economy’s long-term resilience and Vietnam’s increasingly strong position in regional and global value chains.