Dr. Le Duy Binh, Managing Director of Economica Vietnam (an organisation that operates in the fields of development consulting, economic research, policy analysis and project management) spoke to the Customs Newspaperabout economic mattersin Vietnam in a turbulent year.

Dr Le DuyBinh, Managing Director of Economica Vietnam

In terms of economic development in 2020, what impressed you most?

The most positive thing in 2020 is the adaptability and resilience of the Vietnamese economy weremuch better than in previous years. This is reflected in the growth figures, the recovery of some industries made GDP growth reach 2.5-3% in the context that most Asianeconomies hadnegative growth, except for China and some other countries.

Resilience and adaptability are a very important factor and a good foundation for Vietnam in the future. This resilienceand adaptability are expressed from the people, as the primary actor of the economy in the capacity of labour market participants, andconsumers, tohouseholds families, enterprises, government agencies...All have shown flexibility, adaptive flexibility and unanimity in both the goals of disease control and economic development.This helps Vietnam's economy have good results with the goals set in two areas, both pandemic prevention and development of the economy, production and business.Throughout the process, we can see the calmness and decisiveness of Government and the determination persistenceof enterprises and the people.

Besides positive growth, one of the most encouraging results is macroeconomic stability. The numbers on economic growth will not mean too much if the great balances of the economy are not guaranteed. Macroeconomic stability is important because it creates a very good foundation in the future, especially for start-ups, attracting investment, stimulating private investment, encouraging consumption, and the stability of the financial and monetary system. Covid-19 caused great turmoil in the global economy, but Vietnam still maintainedgreat economic balances. This is a very remarkable achievement.

In your opinion, what was the main driving force for the "double victory"?

The main driving force for the economy to be resilient and achieve good results comes from the foundation of confidence and general vision of economic development and disease control. In 2020, the confidence of various actors of the economy was maintained.Theconfidence includesthe confidence of people - very important subjects of the economy when participating as consumers, employees,the confidence of investors, enterprises, and buyers of Vietnamese products, the confidence of the Government. Thisconfidence has been transformed into investment decisions and further implemented projects, into start-ups of more than 100,000 enterprises, into consumer decisions of people and enterprises. Toto maintain the confidence, the role of the Government in governance is a very important factor. This year, the Government has beensteadfast in operating macro policies in the face of pressures to expand fiscal policy andmonetary policythis has returned to reinforce the confidence of enterprises and people.

After Covid-19, do you believe Vietnam's growth graph will follow a V-shape? Why?

Economic growth in 2020 at 2.5-3% is a decline compared to more than 7% in 2019. However, this decline compared to other countries in the region is still quite positive. It will takea long time to know the direction of Vietnam's growth graph and it depends on the economic recovery of 2021-2022 and 2023.According to forecasts, with our current efforts andfoundation, the economic resilience will continue above the 3% compared to level we achieved this year.In the short term of 2021, the V-shaped graph is likely to continue, especially in the context of a recovering global economy, when successfully produced Covid-19 vaccines will support a large-scale economic recovery.The graph of Vietnam's economic growth will still depend on the global economic recovery, which still has many volatile factors.With the current efforts of Vietnam, with the growth rate of 2020, we can fully expect aV-shaped growth scenario in the following years.However, the wide or narrow angle of this V also depends on many other factors that are very difficult to predict at the moment, especially before some negative developments that we receivedin the last week of 2020.

How will growth in 2020 create momentum for growth in 2021?

It is difficult to give a specific forecast for economic growth in 2021. Based on current evidence and trends, it can be believed that the growth rate in 2021 will be higher than in 2020. The economic growth rate is likely to be6.8-7% according to forecasts made by the World Bank, IMF and ADB, based on the assumption the global economy and economies that currently account for the majority of Vietnam's exports.In addition, the normal travel of investors, experts, engineers and skilled workers is also important for the committed FDI inflows to clear and really flow into Vietnam.Ordinary travel will also have an impact on economic sectors that bring in tens of billions of dollars to Vietnam,for example the tourism industry, which is estimated to lose about US$20 billion this year.The high growth scenario clearly depends a lot on the pandemic control at the global level, not just in Vietnam.

However, macroeconomic stability and growth results in the 2020 will be a good foundation and create good momentum for economic growth next year. The resilience of the economy has improved. The relentless efforts and spirit of adapting and surpassing all circumstances of people, enterprises and the Government will help us continue to conquer challenging socio-economic development goals during the next year.