VIETNAM CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY
Liên Đoàn Thương Mại Và Công Nghiệp Việt Nam
Tue, Feb 25, 2025, 07:53:00
Total retail sales of goods and service revenue up 9.5 percent in January
According to the latest report from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, high domestic consumption demand during the Lunar New Year holiday (Tet) and the strong tourism recovery have significantly contributed to the growth of the trade and service sector. The total retail sales of goods and service revenue (based on current prices) are estimated to reach VND573.3 trillion in January 2025, up 2.7 percent from the previous month and 9.5 percent year-on-year (the growth was 8.0 percent in January 2024), excluding the 6.6-percent price increase (the price increase was 5.6 percent in January 2024).
The strong domestic market growth in January was largely driven by retail channels during the Tet shopping season. Le Truong Son, Deputy General Director of Saigon Co.op, stated that during the eight-week business period for the Tet holiday, the entire Saigon Co.op distribution system - including Co.opmart, Co.opXtra, Co.op Food, Co.op Smile, Cheers, Finelife, Sense City, and SenseMarket -welcomed over 100 million visitors for shopping, with sales reaching nearly VND7 trillion.
AEON Vietnam, a supermarket chain that remained open throughout Tet to serve customers, recorded a sharp increase in foot traffic. As AEON Vietnam had announced its holiday opening schedule early, many customers, especially families, planned their visits for entertainment and shopping starting from the first and second days of the Lunar New Year.
These results contributed to an estimated total retail sales of goods of VND441.4 trillion in January 2025, up 8.6 percent year-on-year, making a significant contribution to overall retail sales and consumer service revenue growth.
The domestic market is expected to grow by 12 percent in 2025
12-percent growth expected
In 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has been assigned several growth targets, including a retail sales and service revenue growth rate of about 12 percent.
According to VNDIRECT’s forecast, the total retail sales of goods and service revenue (based on current prices) are expected to grow by around 10-10.5 percent in 2025 (higher than the 9 percent growth in 2024). This growth is driven by a recovering job market, improved real income due to economic expansion, easing inflation trends, and accelerated public investment, all of which are expected to boost domestic demand.
A separate study by experts from Tien Phong Securities (TPS) highlights key factors driving growth in the retail sector, such as Vietnam’s favorable demographic structure, with 62 percent of the population in the working-age group, the expanding retail network, and the increasing adoption of digital payments (40 percent of shoppers use banking apps for purchases). Additionally, rising incomes and the continued expansion of the middle class are seen as positive drivers for the retail sector.
Analysts from FPT Securities (FPTS) also expect retail sales of goods and service revenue to grow by over 10 percent in 2025, similar to the pre-COVID-19 level, as consumer confidence has strengthened.
Long-term growth drivers
Several macroeconomic factors are also shaping Vietnam’s retail market. The country entered its “golden population” phase in 2017, projected to last until 2029. Additionally, by 2050, the urbanization rate is expected to reach 57.3 percent.
According to Nguyen Anh Duc, Chairman of the Vietnam Retailers Association, the retail sector has earned revenue of around US$150 billion, which is expected to increase to US$165 billion in the near future. To ensure double-digit trade growth and increase contributions to gross domestic product (GDP), government agencies and local authorities need to develop both physical and non-physical commercial infrastructure through 2030.
Moreover, consistent development in supporting industries such as logistics and information technology is crucial, as these sectors play a key role in the overall growth of the trade industry.
Additionally, Vietnam needs to enhance its national supply chain planning to prevent competition among localities and with external supply sources. A long-term strategy is needed to ensure that different supply regions complement and support one another, contributing to overall trade development./.
