Defining the three pillars of economic autonomy

Question: From the spirit of the second meeting of the 14th Party Central Committee, how is strategic autonomy for national development understood in the context of profound international fluctuations?

Dr Nguyen Dinh Cung: Strategic autonomy is a nation’s capacity to independently determine core development choices, protect vital interests, and preserve policy space even amid intense international volatility or dominance by major powers, markets, or external shocks. It rests on three pillars: avoiding systemic dependence on a single resource, market, or entity; maintaining the ability to respond, adjust, and substitute when external conditions shift; and safeguarding long-term policy options.

For economic autonomy, a nation must sustain a balanced economic structure, avoiding over-reliance on any single driver. It requires strong internal resilience, a robust financial and monetary system, secure budget revenues, and reliable energy and food supplies. In a world of escalating risks, strategic autonomy is not a luxury but a matter of survival.

A view of the opening session of the second meeting of the 14th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Viet Nam. (Photo: VNA)

Q: What does this imply for the development path of a highly open economy such as Viet Nam?

A: Viet Nam’s economy is increasingly open and deeply integrated, making it vulnerable to external shocks. This fragility is starkly evident amid current global instability. When conflict erupts in the Middle East, Viet Nam feels sharper impacts than many others due to its high openness: energy prices, logistics, and transport costs surge, while export demand weakens under sluggish global growth.

As input costs rise, profit margins shrink, forcing firms to scale back or face losses. In Q1 2026, GDP growth still reached a solid 7.83%, but in this context, the priority is not growth at any cost—it is sustaining production and preserving jobs.

Pursuing quality-driven growth with achievable targets

Q: In your view, what is the most important solution to strengthen the economy’s strategic autonomy?

A: From 2026, we aim for double-digit growth to meet the nation’s two century-long strategic goals. Strategic autonomy also requires a shift in growth models: each 1% of growth must embed higher knowledge content. The time has come to abandon “quantity-chasing” growth in favour of a quality-driven mindset and management.

Integration is necessary, but institutional reform, productivity gains, enterprise development, technology, and human resources are what make high, sustainable growth possible.

Thus, integration is not for immediate growth but to secure markets, supply chains, and strengthen endogenous capacity—thereby enhancing strategic autonomy and positioning the nation to seize future opportunities.

Q: With global risks and challenges outweighing opportunities, which growth drivers should be harnessed for double-digit expansion?

A: Viet Nam’s greatest potential does not lie in more capital or labour, but in harnessing science, technology, innovation, digital transformation, and AI as primary drivers through productivity breakthroughs.

Enterprises must be the centre of innovation, embedding science and technology into production and business, widely applying AI, narrowing the technology gap with advanced nations, and achieving a productivity leap. For genuine enterprise innovation, the key is institutional reform and a business-friendly environment.

We have vast untapped potential; if new drivers are unleashed, 10% growth is daunting but achievable.

Thank you for your insights!