Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank

Standard Chartered recently forecasted the Vietnam’s 2024 GDP growth to 6.8% (from 6.0%), with momentum slowing from Q3. The Bank also sees Q4 growth is expected to moderate to 6.9%. Retail sales growth has likely eased to 6.2% (from 7.6%), export sector eased to 6.2% (from 10.7%) while electronics exports may have improved further on a year-to-date basis. Imports and industrial production likely grew at 4.0% and 9.2%, respectively. Credit growth has remained around 9% YTD as of the end of September.

 Vietnam has posted several months of surpluses this year and the external sector has stayed relatively solid. The monthly trade surplus may have widened to USD 3.8 billion in October, compared to USD 2.3 billion in previous month, adding to a series of surpluses this year.

Tim Leelahaphan, Economist for Thailand and Vietnam, Standard Chartered Bank, said “While we remain cautious on Vietnam’s economy near-term given the recent moderation in macro data, we also acknowledge the economy’s ability to perform better than market expectations. The government’s push for stronger economic growth may support low interest rates in the near future. Inflation has slowed recently but likely rose to an estimated 3.0% in October and is expected to continue increasing on an annual basis, with a further rise anticipated in mid-2025. This ongoing upward trend in inflation, coupled with a likely weaker VND, underpins Standard Chartered’s expectation for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to raise interest rates by 50bps in Q2-2025.”