This development reflects rising demand for capital mobilisation to meet strong credit growth at the year-end, while also creating multidimensional impacts on depositors, businesses, and the monetary policy management.

According to the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV), outstanding credit of the whole economy reached over 18.2 million billion VND as of November 27, up 16.56% compared with the end of 2024, a high increasing rate compared to the same period in recent years. Meanwhile, growth rate in capital mobilisation has been significantly slower than credit growth.

Deposit interest rates begin to move

Some estimates show that by the end of November 2025, the capital mobilisation of the whole system had increased by only about 9–10%. The gap between lending growth and deposit mobilisation has forced banks to adjust interest rates to ensure capital resource balance. Statistics from the Viet Nam Banks Association (VNBA) indicate that in November alone, as many as 22 commercial banks increased deposit interest rates, typically by 0.1–0.3 percentage points. Some large banks increased rates for periods of six to twelve months to around 4.8–5.2% per year.

A leader of a joint-stock commercial bank said that increasing deposit rates at the year-end is primarily aimed at proactively securing capital sources and avoiding a passive position when disbursement demand surges. “Without early preparation, banks would face significant liquidity pressure during peak weeks,” he said.

Apart from credit demand, interest rate adjustments also come from technical factors in liquidity management and maturity risk control. At year-end, many banks must meet safety ratios as regulated while preparing capitals for business plans in the following year. In this context, increasing deposit rates are seen as a flexible tool to regulate cash flows, particularly to attract medium- and long-term capital. Some banks have also adjusted interest rates for online deposits, aiming to both to reduce operating costs and enhance competitiveness.

Experts said that the liquidity of the system remains under control, with no signs of widespread stress. However, differentiation among banks is becoming increasingly evident, especially between large banks with stable deposit bases and smaller banks that rely more heavily on market mobilisation. In a recent updated report of the banking sector, the Vietcap Securities’ analysis team noted that recent deposit interest rate increasing pressure is still under control and the absolute interest-rate, in general, continues to support the economy.

Challenges in policy management

Interest rate adjustments are expected to have mixed effects on people and businesses. For depositors, higher interest rates bring immediate benefits by improving returns after a long period of stagnation. It may help attract idle cash back into the banking system instead of riskier investment channels. For businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, higher deposit interest rates may eventually push borrowing costs to increase in the coming time. Although many banks have pledged to keep lending rates stable, in principle, higher input costs place pressure on output interest rates.

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, an economist, said that the upward trend in deposit interest rates is likely to continue at least until the Lunar New Year Festival of the Horse (Tet 2026). After Tet, as economic activity enters a calmer cycle, interest rates may gradually cool. “However, if credit grows ‘hot’ while lending interest rates cannot be reduced, businesses will face higher capital costs. Many borrowers may invest in speculative assets to seek returns that offset lending interest costs. This increases the risk not only for borrowers, but also for banks and the entire financial system," said Dr. Hieu.

From a macroeconomic perspective, increasing in deposit interest rates is considered as a market-based response suitable with the law of supply and demand for capital. The State Bank of Viet Nam has consistently pursued its goal of flexible management to ensure system liquidity and support economic growth.

Amid strong credit growth, management agencies are likely to continue using open market operations to manage liquidity and prevent short-term interest-rate pressures from spilling over into medium- and long-term interest rates. In recent days, the State Bank of Viet Nam has simultaneously implemented various measures to increase lending interest rates on the OMO market to 4.5% and conducted 14-day foreign exchange swap transactions. As a result, by December 19, interest rates had eased compared with early December, with interbank rates, especially overnight and one-week period rates, having declined dramatically.

Overall, the increase in interest rates since the beginning of the fourth quarter reflects capital mobilisation pressures amid strong credit growth at the year end. This is a cyclical development based on market realities. However, the key policy challenge lies in keeping interest rate fluctuations within controllable limits to avoid disrupting capital costs and undermining the pace of economic recovery.

Ha Thu Giang, Director General of the Credit Department for Economic Sectors at the State Bank of Viet Nam, highlighted a key challenge in the coming time: the banking system is under heavy pressure to supply medium- and long-term capital for the economy, particularly for major national projects, while the corporate bond and stock markets continue to face difficulties and have not fully played their role as primary providers of medium- and long-term capital.

To ease funding-balance pressures, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s Policy Advisory Council, said: “It is necessary to rebalance capital transmission channels, with the capital market developed more commensurately to reduce the economy’s excessive dependence on bank credit, especially for medium- and long-term funding needs.”

Interest rates are likely to adjust in the coming period, affecting business operations and investment costs. Meanwhile, as banks gradually move towards higher safety standards such as Basel III, the challenge of balancing resources to both support growth and meet safety requirements according to international rules is becoming increasingly complex.

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung

Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Viet Nam Banks Association

Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice Chairman and Secretary General of the Viet Nam Banks Association, also emphasised that the banking system has made significant efforts to mobilise large-scale resources to support the economy. However, excessive reliance on bank credit carries inherent risks, particularly for system safety and liquidity, especially during peak periods such as the year end.

“Interest rates are likely to adjust in the coming period, affecting business operations and investment costs. At the same time, as banks gradually move towards higher safety standards such as Basel III, the challenge of balancing resources to both support growth and meet safety requirements according to international rules is becoming increasingly complex,” noted Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung