According to a report on the real estate market in HCMC and neighboring areas for the first two months of Q3 by leading consultancy firm DKRA Group, apartment supply has increased, accompanied by an upward trend in prices.

In July, the market recorded 113 projects with a total supply of 11,391 units, of which 1,913 units were sold, achieving a 17% absorption rate.

Following the merger of Binh Duong and Ba Ria-Vung Tau provinces into HCMC, the new HCMC maintained its leading position, accounting for 99.1% of the total primary market supply. Most transactions were concentrated in inventory from previously launched projects in the former Binh Duong province.

In August, primary supply increased slightly by 3% year-on-year. HCMC continued to dominate the market with a total supply of 12,000 units, including nearly 3,000 newly launched units.

DKRA noted a general improvement in market demand, with most transactions occurring in HCMC-based projects. However, the market remained imbalanced across segments.

Grade A apartments led the primary market, making up 41.6% of the supply, primarily located in HCMC. Meanwhile, Grade B and C apartments were more prevalent in suburban areas and adjacent provinces.

Primary market prices increased by 2-6% compared to July. In HCMC, prices ranged from VND37 million ($1,400) to VND493 million ($18,680) per square meter. In Tay Ninh, the range was VND28-57 million, and in Dong Nai, VND33-41 million.

Despite expectations that prices would stabilize following the administrative merger, data shows continued price hikes in both the primary and secondary apartment markets in the new HCMC.

For example, in 2014, Vinhomes Central Park launched with prices around VND45-50 million ($1,895) per sqm. Today, depending on size, prices have risen to VND90-120 million.

The Nassim Thao Dien, launched in 2015 at VND80 million per sqm, now trades at VND135-180 million. Similarly, Estella Heights, first launched in 2015 in the Thu Thiem area at VND36 million sqm, is currently being resold for VND110-150 million.

In areas like Binh Duong and Vung Tau, new launch prices are also crossing the threshold of VND40 million ($1,516) per sqm - a level developers consider affordable and accessible. However, for the majority of working-class buyers, these prices remain out of reach.

Caution about inflated pricing

Real estate expert Nguyen Hoang warned that despite encouraging signs in the broader market, structural imbalances in supply and demand persist. The market is still heavily skewed toward the high-end segment, with very limited availability in the mid-range. Social housing which could help rein in price growth remains scarce.

Many homebuyers and investors are staying on the sidelines, hesitant to put down money due to rapid price increases. Transactions are largely limited to a few specific projects, making it difficult to generalize overall market trends.

Dinh Minh Tuan, southern regional director of Batdongsan.com.vn, noted that apartment prices in the former Binh Duong area rose by 22% in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. Primary market prices surged over 30%, while secondary prices increased by less than 10%, highlighting a growing gap between the two markets.

“Condominiums will likely continue to lead the market, supported by growing end-user demand, renewed investor confidence, and quality supply from reputable developers. However, investors should remain cautious of projects prone to price manipulation in the context of limited supply,” he emphasized.