Significant pork price hike threatens CPI stability

The pork market is in the most volatile period in the past 5 years, when prices continue to increase due to imbalances in supply and demand. The price increase not only affects consumers but also risks affecting the CPI.

As of March 7, pork prices across Vietnam have continued their upward trend, now ranging between VND74,000 and VND83,000 a kg. This increase is evident across all three regions.

In the North, pork prices of a kilogram rose by VND1,000, reaching between VND75,000 and VND77,000. The Central region also saw similar price levels, fluctuating between VND74,000 and VND82,000 a kg. Meanwhile, the South experienced further increases, with Ho Chi Minh City hitting VND82,000 a kg, while provinces such as Binh Duong, Long An, Tien Giang, and Ben Tre reported prices at VND81,000 a kg.

Over the past 5 years, this is the highest price recorded, and it may continue to rise further if supply fails to recover soon.

According to experts, this price increase comes from many reasons. First of all, after the Lunar New Year, the demand for pork consumption remains high, while the supply cannot recover quickly because it takes time for the herd restoration. In addition, African swine fever is showing signs of re-emerging in the Southeast, seriously affecting the pork supply to the market. The prolonged epidemic has caused many livestock enterprises to reduce their sow herds, leading to a significant decrease in live pig output.

Data from the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Finance and select localities in the Southeast show that the price of live pigs at major livestock enterprises remains in the range of VND71,000 - VND73,000 a kg. However, sales volumes have dropped sharply. This decline has driven up the free market price, which now averages VND78,000 a kg.

The General Statistics Office reported a substantial increase in pork retail prices, with 6.48 percent compared to the previous month, equivalent to an increase of VND2,000 - VND10,000 a kg adding pressure on consumer spending and potential CPI growth.

The rising prices of live pigs present both lucrative opportunities and significant challenges for farmers. According to Ninh Tran Phuong, Deputy Director of the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine in Yen Bai province, if prices continue to surge rapidly, farmers might hastily rebuild their herds without proper planning, potentially resulting in a supply-demand imbalance down the line.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phung Duc Tien observed that the elevated prices of live pigs are having a direct impact on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), as the staple meat is the most heavily weighted item with 65 percent in the food basket. Consequently, he emphasized the necessity of implementing suitable control measures to balance the interests of farmers, businesses, and consumers.

Experts predict that in the short term, the price of live pigs may continue to rise, particularly in the South, with forecasts reaching up to VND84,000 a kg. However, in the long run, as livestock businesses work towards herd restoration, supply will gradually stabilize, leading to a cooling down of prices. Director Duong Tat Thang of the Department of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine forecasts that from the end of March to the beginning of April, live pig prices will start to decline as the supply improves.

The Ministry of Industry and Trade announced that importing frozen pork will help stabilize supply and control price increases. Concurrently, local authorities must intensify disease prevention efforts and ensure the safe restoration of herds to mitigate the risk of future supply shortages.

Currently, the Department of Finance of Ho Chi Minh City and many localities have issued documents proposing price management measures. Enterprises participating in the market stabilization program are making efforts to supply pork at reasonable prices, while considering adjusting the stabilization price in the coming time to reduce pressure on consumers.