The Drewry World Container Freight Index shows that the cost of shipping a 40-foot container has gone down from $3,905 at the start of 2025 to $3,364 by the end of January, representing a 16 per cent drop in just one month. This decline has been mainly attributed to the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East.

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According to Xeneta, a platform for analysing sea and air freight rates, the ceasefire in the Middle East does not necessarily mean that ships passing through the Red Sea are entirely safe, but it has been enough to sooth market sentiment and significantly impact international freight rates.

The Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Association has forecast that shipping rates are unlikely to rise sharply in 2025 due to the pressure of an oversupply of new ships, the risks of supply chain disruptions caused by strikes, and geopolitical conflicts.

Based on forecasts from reputable global organisations, PetroVietnam Transportation Corporation (PVTrans) believes that crude oil freight rates in 2025 would struggle to remain high as crude oil supply exceeds demand.

For bulk shipping, freight rates are expected to fall as supply and demand dynamics shift compared to 2024, with supply growth outpacing demand.

In a talk with VIR, Pham Viet Anh, chairman of PVTrans, noted that while demand for marine transportation continues to grow, this outlook is not entirely favourable due to numerous challenges, including geopolitical instability, risks related to the restructuring of global supply chains, and the ongoing uncertainty caused by US import tariffs.

Therefore, in 2025, PVTrans aims for consolidated revenue of $412 million and pre-tax profit of $48 million, down 13 per cent and 36 per cent compared to before-audited 2024 results.

“A cautious approach in 2025 is a reasonable strategy given the unpredictable global economic fluctuations,” said Anh.

Ho Si Thuan, director of Phuong Dong Vietnam Shipping and Logistics JSC (PVT Logistics), shares similar concerns about the unpredictable risks facing the global economy, with the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and the potential for escalation in the Middle East.

Moreover, the Trump administration’s trade policies are expected to have a significant impact on the global supply chain, especially within the maritime transport industry.

As a result, PVT Logistics is targeting $58 million in revenue and $4.4 million in pre-tax profit in 2025, down 2 per cent in revenue and 62 per cent in profit compared to its estimated 2024 results.

According to Thuan, this year, the company will focus on safely and efficiently operating its fleet of oil, chemical, and bulk carriers while adopting measures to mitigate the adverse market conditions to avoid disrupting production and business operations.

Looking ahead, the leadership of Vietnam Maritime Transport JSC forecasts that the company’s shipping volume could reach seven million tonnes in 2025, up 8 per cent on-year.

The company’s revenue and pre-tax profit targets, however, are expected to decline by 12 per cent and 9.6 per cent, respectively, compared to the same period last year, falling to $212 million and $15.04 million.

Nevertheless, shipping volume remains a bright spot for the maritime transport sector this year.

According to statistics from the Vietnam Maritime Administration, the cargo volume handled by the country's port system was estimated to have reached 864.4 million tonnes last year, up 14 per cent on-year. Containerised cargo volume was expected to reach 29.9 million TEU, up 21 per cent on-year.

The World Trade Organization forecasts that global merchandise trade volume would grow by 3 per cent in 2025 compared to the previous year.

Exports from Asian countries are expected to grow by 4.7 per cent this year. With Vietnam’s increasing integration into global supply chains, the country’s maritime transport sector will secure benefits from rising global demands for freight services.